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International traveling and trade: further evidence for the case of Spanish wine based on fractional VAR specifications AgEcon
Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Fischer, Christian.
This paper deals with the relationship between international travelling and trade. For this purpose we focus on a particular case study: the connection between the Spanish wine exports to Germany and the German travellers to Spain. Unlike previous studies we use a methodology based on fractional vector autoregressive models, which permits us to compute the impulse responses in a similar way as in the standard VAR case. The results show that the orders of integration of the two series are constrained between 0 and 1, being higher for the arrivals series than for the exports. The impulse response analysis reveals that an increase in travelling produces a positive initial impact on trade though it tends to disappear in the long run.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International trade; Multivariate models; Fractional VAR; Tourism.; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7859
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Non-Linearities and Fractional Integration in the US Unemployment Rate AgEcon
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A..
This paper proposes a model of the US unemployment rate which accounts for both its asymmetry and its long memory. Our approach, based on the tests of Robinson (1994), introduces fractional integration and nonlinearities simultaneously into the same framework (unlike earlier studies employing a sequential procedure), using a Lagrange Multiplier procedure with a standard limit distribution. The empirical results suggest that the US unemployment rate can be specified in terms of a fractionally integrated process, which interacts with some non-linear functions of the labour demand variables (real oil prices and real interest rates). We also find evidence of a long-memory component. Our results are consistent with a hysteresis model with path dependency rather...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Unemployment; Asymmetries; Nonlinearities; Fractional Integration; Persistence; Long Memory; Labor and Human Capital; C32; E32.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26232
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The nature of the relationship between international tourism and international trade: the case of German imports of Spanish wine AgEcon
Fischer, Christian; Gil-Alana, Luis A..
This paper deals with the relationship between international trade and tourism. We focus on the effect that German tourism to Spain has on German imports of Spanish wine. Due to the different properties of the series under analysis, which display different orders of integration, a long memory regression model is used, where tourism is supposed to be exogenous. The period covered is January 1998 to November 2004. The results show that tourism has an effect on wine imports that lasts between two and nine months, depending on the type of tourism series employed. Disaggregating the imports across the different types of wine it is observed that only for quality red wines from Navarra, Penedús and Valdepeñas, and to a certain extent for sparkling wine, tourism...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International trade; Tourism; Long memory; Spanish wine.; International Relations/Trade; F14; C22; Q13; L83.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10049
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The Nature of the Relationship between International Tourism and International Trade: The Case of German Imports of Spanish Wine AgEcon
Fischer, Christian; Gil-Alana, Luis A..
This paper deals with the relationship between international trade and tourism. We focus on the effect that German tourism to Spain has on German imports of Spanish wine. Due to the different properties of the series under analysis, which display different orders of integration, a long memory regression model is used, where tourism is supposed to be exogenous. The period covered is January 1998 to November 2004. The results show that tourism has an effect on wine imports that lasts between two and nine months, depending on the type of tourism series employed. Disaggregating the imports across the different types of wine it is observed that only for quality red wines from Navarra, Penedús and Valdepeñas, and to a certain extent for sparkling wine, tourism...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International trade; Tourism; Long memory; Spanish wine; International Relations/Trade; F14; C22; Q13; L83.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25341
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The nature of the relationship between international tourism and international trade: the case of German imports of Spanish wine AgEcon
Fischer, Christian; Gil-Alana, Luis A..
This paper deals with the relationship between international trade and tourism. In particular, we focus on the effect that German tourism to Spain has on German imports of Spanish wine. Due to the different stochastic properties of the series under analysis, which display different orders of integration, we use a methodology based on long memory regression models, where tourism is supposed to be exogenous. The results show that at the aggregate level, tourism has an effect on wine imports that lasts between two and nine months. Disaggregating the imports across the different types of wine it is observed that only for red wines from Navarra, Penedús and Valdepeñas, and to a certain extent for sparkling wine, tourism produces an effect on future import...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International trade; Tourism; Long memory; Spanish wine; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; F14; C22; Q13; L83.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57033
Registros recuperados: 5
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