SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Heckelei, Thomas; Mittelhammer, Ronald C.; Jansson, Torbjorn.

This paper presents a Bayesian alternative to Generalized Maximum Entropy (GME) and Generalized Cross Entropy (GCE) methods for deriving solutions to econometric models represented by underdetermined systems of equations. For certain types of econometric model specifications, the Bayesian approach provides fully equivalent results to GME-GCE techniques. However, in its general form, the proposed Bayesian methodology allows a more direct and straightforwardly interpretable formulation of available prior information and can reduce significantly the computational effort involved in finding solutions. The technique can be adapted to provide solutions in situations characterized by either informative or uninformative prior information.

Comparative Analysis of World Market Projections with Special Regard to Wheat Prices

Palavras-chave: Underdetermined Equation Systems; Maximum Entropy; Bayesian Priors; Structural Estimation; Calibration; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C11; C13; C51.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56973

Heckelei, Thomas; Krebs, Elvira; Mollmann, Claus; von Lampe, Martin.

This paper presents a short comparative analysis of USDA and FAPRI projections for world wheat market prices until 2005. The relevance of different model assumptions regarding assumed inflation, exchange rates, policy parameters as well as shifts in demand and production development are discussed. A subsequent section focuses on the problem of a "world market price concept" for evaluating the potential of unsubsidized EU cereal exports. The Annex provides more detailed information on model assumptions and a comparison of other projected values, also including agricultural products other than wheat. Dieses Diskussionspapier stellt eine kurze vergleichende Analyse aktueller USDA- und FAPRI- Projektionen von Weltmarktpreisen fur Weizen bis 2005 vor. Die...

What makes countries initiate WTO disputes on food-related issues?

Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18778

Goetz, Christian; Heckelei, Thomas; Rudloff, Bettina.

This paper analyses relevant determinants for the probability to initiate a dispute on policy measures under the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement system. The empirical analysis differs from existing assessments by focusing on agri-food related disputes and provides a more in-depth analysis of specific country and sectoral characteristics not considered in previous studies. Contrary to recent analyses of overall trade disputes, the results show that some determinants such as legal capacity and monetary means are not statistically significant. Own protectionist behaviour, endured protectionism, and the duration of WTO membership, however, could be identified as relevant determinants with the expected direction of impact.

Working paper: Literature Review of Approaches to Estimate Structural Change

Palavras-chave: WTO dispute; Agri-food sector; Binary choice model; International Relations/Trade; C12; C13; F13.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56974

Zimmermann, Andrea; Heckelei, Thomas; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: International Development.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9304

Development of a conceptual framework for integrated analysis and assessment of agricultural systems in SEAMLESS-IF

Ewert, Frank; van Ittersum, Martin K.; Bezlepkina, Irina V.; Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M.; Brouwer, Floor M.; Andersen, Erling; Flichman, Guillermo; Heckelei, Thomas; Olsson, Johanna Alkan; Olsson, Lennart; Rizzoli, Andrea E.; van der Wal, Tamme; Wery, Jacques.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Production Economics.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9287

ACCESS TO CAPITAL AND FIRM-LEVEL INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR IN FOOD INDUSTRIES: A COMPARISON OF COOPERATIVES AND PUBLICLY TRADED FIRMS

Chaddad, Fabio Ribas; Heckelei, Thomas.

This paper compares investment behavior of agricultural cooperatives and publicly traded firms in the food industry. The importance of financial constraints is examined by exploring whether ownership structure affects investment sensitivity to cash flow using a panel data approach based on the Q-theory of investment.

Structural change of European dairy farms - A cross-regional analysis

Palavras-chave: Agribusiness.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22205

Zimmermann, Andrea; Heckelei, Thomas.

Previous analyses of dairy farm structural change focused on the variation over time in one or a small number of regions. Here we present an EU-15-wide analysis of the change of the number of farms in different size classes. The purpose is (1) to identify the differences in regional development patterns and (2) to measure the explanatory relevance and effect of key factors suggested in the literature. Apart from the unprecedented scope, the underlying Markov chain analysis also contributes by combining observed transitions in micro data with macro data on farm numbers. Results show widely significant impacts of most explanatory variables, but also reveal the complexity of the underlying processes.

Analysing major determinants of European FDI into the Mediterranean countries

Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61090

Weissleder, Lucie M.; Heckelei, Thomas.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is known as a very relevant driver of economic growth and has found increased attention in recent trade research. Existing theories differ, however, in their conclusion regarding the relation between trade in goods and FDI: they appear to be either complements or substitutes depending on the theory applied and specific country conditions. Benefits or losses for individual member countries resulting from these different relationships are relevant for evaluating the effects of regional trade areas as established by the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership. This paper offers an empirical analysis of the connection between trade and FDI flows in the agribusiness sector in the context of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership. It...

Definition of the CAPRI Core Modelling System and Interfaces with other Components of SEAMLESS-IF

Palavras-chave: Foreign Direct Investment; Trade; EU-Med Partnership; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44053

Britz, Wolfgang; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Zimmermann, Andrea; Heckelei, Thomas.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9284

Parametric or Nonparametric Approaches to the Estimation of Marginal Cost in Dairy Production? A Comparison of Estimation Results

Wieck, Christine; Heckelei, Thomas.

This paper compares various nonparametric models for the estimation of farm specific marginal costs function in the dairy sector. Specifically, locally weighted regression approaches using theory-consistent cost function frameworks as polynomials in the nonparametric approach are applied. A comparison of average marginal cost levels as well as marginal cost distributions across farms illustrates the different approaches.

Farm Structural Change in German Regions - An Empirical Analysis using Micro and Macro Data

Palavras-chave: Dairy production; Marginal costs; Nonparametric regression; Livestock Production/Industries; C33; Q12; Q18.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9829

Zimmermann, Andrea; Heckelei, Thomas.

General economic developments as well as recent fundamental changes in the Common Agricultural Policy will likely impact significantly on the European farm structure. Although a decline of total farm numbers continues to be the general observation, important differences occur across regions and farm types. These differentiated developments and their determinants are of high relevance for policy impact assessment at the regional level. The main objective of the analysis provided in this paper is to empirically identify whether regionally specific characteristics account for differences in regional farm structure development. This is exemplarily shown for German FADN regions. As methodological approach a combined time series, cross-sectional Markov chain...

Bayesian estimation of non-stationary Markov models combining micro and macro data

Palavras-chave: Farm structure; Markov model; Germany; Farm Management.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44049

Storm, Hugo; Heckelei, Thomas.

In this poster a Bayesian estimation framework for a non-stationary Markov model is developed for situations where sample data with observed transition between classes (micro data) and aggregate population shares (macro data) are available. Posterior distributions on transition probabilities are derived based on a micro based prior and a macro based Likelihood function thereby consistently combining previously separated approaches. Monte Carlo simulations for ordered and unordered Markov states show how observed micro transitions improve precision of posterior knowledge as the sample size increases.

Documentation of model components EXPAMOD and CAPRI

Palavras-chave: Bayesian estimation; Markov transitions; Prior information; Multinomial logit; Ordered multinomial logit; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103645

Adenauer, Marcel; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Bezlepkina, Irina V.; Heckelei, Thomas; Romstad, Eirik; Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M..

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57918

Bayesian Analysis of a Japanese Meat Demand System: A Robust Likelihood Approach

Heckelei, Thomas; Mittelhammer, Ronald C.; Wahl, Thomas I..

This paper presents an application of Bayesian analysis to an AIDS model of Japanese meat demand extending previous approaches in three ways: (1) The methodology employed is robust with respect to the likelihood function but retains the generic, easily programmable character of algorithms offered by Monte Carlo Integration approaches based on the normal likelihood function. (2) In addition to inequality constraints, linear exact restrictions and stochastic prior information are subjected to a Bayesian posterior analysis of validity and incorporated into Bayesian point estimates of model parameters and elasticities. (3) In order to assess the influence of the prior density on posterior distributions of model parameters relative to the likelihood, a measure...

A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Programming Models

Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.

Ano: 1997

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18783

Heckelei, Thomas; Wolff, Hendrik.

The paper introduces a general methodological approach for the estimation of constrained optimisation models in agricultural supply analysis. It is based on optimality conditions of the desired programming model and shows a conceptual advantage compared to Positive Mathematical Programming in the context of well posed estimation problems. Moreover, it closes the empirical and methodological gap between programming models and duality based functional models with explicit allocation of fixed factors. Monte Carlo simulations are performed with a maximum entropy estimator to evaluate the functionality of the approach as well as the impact of empirically relevant prior information in small sample situations.

Determinants of Bilateral Food Related Disputes

Palavras-chave: Agricultural Supply Analysis; Programming Models; Maximum Entropy Estimation; Prior Information; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24896

Goetz, Christian; Heckelei, Thomas.

Regional crop supply behaviour in the EU

Palavras-chave: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61773

Jansson, Torbjorn; Heckelei, Thomas.

The objective of this paper is to present an evolution of PMP model suitable to estimate the revenue function and to provide price elasticity due to the variation of subsidies at farm level, especially if they are decoupled. This problem arises when individual data of farm households in a given region, coming from FADN, are used for implement PMP models finalized to policy analysis. This paper presents the theoretical background of the proposed innovations and empirical evidence on the basis of a sample of farms included in FADN database in Italy.

Bayesian Bootstrap Analysis of Systems of Equations

Palavras-chave: Bayesian estimation; Errors-in-variables; PMP; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44009

Heckelei, Thomas; Mittelhammer, Ronald C..