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Registros recuperados: 49
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Risk Assessment in Economic Feasibility Analysis: The Case of Ethanol Production in Texas AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Herbst, Brian K.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Anderson, David P.; Klose, Steven L.; Gill, Robert Chope, II.
The objective of this study is to demonstrate the benefits of quantifying the economic viability of a proposed agribusiness under risk relative to a feasibility study which ignores risk. To achieve this objective, the economic viability of a 50 MMGPY ethanol facility in Texas is analyzed over a 10-year period in two ways: with no risk and with historical risk for prices and costs.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42095
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Knapek, George M.; Raulston, J. Marc; Herbst, Brian K.; Fumasi, Roland J.; Anderson, David P.; Klose, Steven L..
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2005-2012 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: • Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms, and • Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) January 2007 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by farmers for prices...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42086
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Regional and Structural Impacts of Alternative Dairy Policy Options AgEcon
Anderson, David P.; Herbst, Brian K.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W..
Milk and dairy product prices have fallen to their lowest levels in 3 years following the record highs of 2004 and 2005. The large government stockpiles of non-fat dry milk are gone, but threaten to build again as non-fat dry milk and cheese prices decline nearer the support price level. A new farm bill is scheduled to be written in 2007. The Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) program included in the last farm bill was only authorized through September 2005. Subsequent legislation reinstated the MILC program through August 2007. WTO negotiations are on-going and could influence U.S. farm programs 1/. Dairy’s role in the U.S. amber box limit of $19.1 billion may necessitate some possible trade-offs with other commodities. Dairy counts about $4.2 billion...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42094
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Financial Impacts of Regional Differences in Dairies AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Herbst, Brian K.; Richardson, James W.; Anderson, David P..
The sensitivity of net cash farm income to changes in selected production variables, output prices, and input costs varies significantly across representative U.S. dairies. Different regions of the country were impacted differently by changes to production and prices.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Q12; Q14.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34937
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2004 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Herbst, Brian K.; Anderson, David P.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Raulston, J. Marc; Feldman, Paul A.; Schumann, Keith D.; Klose, Steven L.; Schwart, Robert B., Jr.; Zimmel, Peter.
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2001-2008 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming and ranching operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) January 2004 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine the farms’ economic viability by...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42683
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the December 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Knapek, George M.; Raulston, J. Marc; Herbst, Brian K.; Fumasi, Roland J.; Anderson, David P.; Bryant, Henry L.; Klose, Steven L.; Zimmel, Peter.
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Bill) on representative crop, dairy, and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2007-2012 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate agricultural operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: • Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. • Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) December 2007 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37977
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the December 2006 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Knapek, George M.; Raulston, J. Marc; Herbst, Brian K.; Fumasi, Roland J.; Anderson, David P.; Klose, Steven L.; Zimmel, Peter.
Under the December 2006 Baseline, 25 of the 65 crop farms are considered in good liquidity condition (less than a 25 percent chance of negative ending cash in 2011). Five crop farms have between a 25 percent and a 50 percent likelihood of negative ending cash. The remaining 35 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent chance of negative ending cash. Additionally, 33 of the 65 crop farms are considered in good equity position (less than a 25 percent chance of decreasing real net worth during the study period). Eight crop farms have between a 25 percent and 50 percent likelihood of losing real net worth, and 24 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent probability of decreasing real net worth. The following discussion provides an overall evaluation by...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42089
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Outlook for Texas Representative Cotton Farms AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Raulston, J. Marc; Richardson, James W.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Herbst, Brian K..
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 are projected for representative Texas cotton farms. The analysis was conducted over the 2001-2008 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in Texas’ major cotton production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative cotton farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) August 2004 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine cotton farms’ economic viability by region through 2008, assuming provisions of the 2002...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42674
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AFPC Review of County Loan Rates for Sorghum and Corn AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Knapek, George M.; Herbst, Brian K..
The Agricultural & Food Policy Center (AFPC) updated the comparison of corn and sorghum county loan rates following the general methodology outlined in the October 2002 Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) study on corn and sorghum loan rates. The study answers two questions: 1. Are the 2006 county loan rates established by USDA consistent with the Congressional mandate that national average loan rates for both commodities be $1.95 per bushel? 2. What would be the impact if USDA were to adopt a different weighting scheme in setting county loan rates while continuing to maintain the mandated national average loan rate? Specifically, what would be the impact on sorghum loan rates if each county’s loan rate were weighted by the county’s...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42083
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The Effects of Sex-Sorted Semen on Southern Dairy Farms AgEcon
Herbst, Brian K.; Anderson, David P.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Bilby, Todd.
This paper examines the impact of sex-sorted semen adoption on dairy farm level economics. Representative dairies are used to simulate the financial impacts of moving to this new technology. Key economic, financial and herd dynamics will be compared among dairies to show how the uses of sex-sorted semen will affect dairy farms. All seven of the representative dairies that were analyzed sold surplus replacement heifers using sex-sorted semen. The increase use of sex-sorted semen can have very positive impacts on dairies throughout the Southern United States.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dairy production; Sex sorted semen; Production economics; Scenario analysis; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46814
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Impact of the FARM 21 Proposal on Representative Crops, Dairy and Beef Cattle Farms AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Raulston, J. Marc; Knapek, George M.; Herbst, Brian K..
The Food & Agriculture Risk Management for the 21st Century Act (FARM 21) formally introduced June 13th by U.S. Representatives Ron Kind (D-WI), Jeff Flake (R-AZ), Joe Crowley (D-NY), and David Reichert (R-WA), would significantly change most of U.S. agricultural policy. The proposed changes are wide ranging from commodity programs to energy, conservation, and food and nutrition programs. Given the breadth of the changes, it is important to have some indication of the impacts on producers if this proposal were to be adopted. While FARM 21 has a broad set of priorities that support would be directed to, this report focuses on the proposed changes to the producer safety net programs contained in Title I -- direct payments (DPs), counter-cyclical payments...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37987
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Knapek, George M.; Raulston, J. Marc; Herbst, Brian K.; Fumasi, Roland J.; Anderson, David P.; Klose, Steven L.; Zimmel, Peter.
Under the January 2007 Baseline, 20 of the 64 crop farms are considered in good liquidity condition (less than a 25 percent chance of negative ending cash in 2012). Five crop farms have between a 25 percent and a 50 percent likelihood of negative ending cash. The remaining 39 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent chance of negative ending cash. Additionally, 30 of the 64 crop farms are considered in good equity position (less than a 25 percent chance of decreasing real net worth during the study period). Nine crop farms have between a 25 percent and 50 percent likelihood of losing real net worth, and 25 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent probability of decreasing real net worth. The following discussion provides an overall evaluation by...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42088
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Farm Level Projections of the Impacts of Payment Limitations: Revised AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Raulston, J. Marc; Herbst, Brian K.; Anderson, David P..
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42696
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the August 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Knapek, George M.; Raulston, J. Marc; Herbst, Brian K.; Fumasi, Roland J.; Anderson, David P.; Klose, Steven L.; Zimmel, Peter.
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Bill) on representative crop, dairy, and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2007-2012 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate agricultural operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: 1) Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. 2) Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) August 2007 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37983
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the August 2003 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Raulston, J. Marc; Anderson, David P.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Herbst, Brian K.; Feldman, Paul A.; Schumann, Keith D.; Klose, Steven L.; Schwart, Robert B., Jr.; Zimmel, Peter.
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2001-2007 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming and ranching operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) August 2003 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine the farms’ economic viability by...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42704
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LOCATION OF A MIXALCO PRODUCTION FACILITY WITH RESPECT TO ECONOMIC VIABILITY AgEcon
Lau, Michael H.; Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Fuller, Stephen W.; Nixon, Clair J.; Herbst, Brian K..
Monte-Carlo simulation modeling is used to perform a feasibility study of alternative locations for a MixAlco production facility. Net present value distributions will be ranked within feasible risk aversion boundaries. If MixAlco is a profitable investment, it would have a major impact on the fuel oxygenate and gasoline markets.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20025
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Economic Outlook for Representative Dairies Given the August 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Knapek, George M.; Herbst, Brian K.; Raulston, J. Marc.
While projected milk prices are a primary determinant of the financial viability of the representative dairies, the prices of feed crops and cattle prices can also have an impact. Most of the dairies produce hay, silage, and other crops and are often net buyers. Commodity prices have a major impact on dairy returns because feed represents the number one cost for dairies. With the recent increase in demand for corn, prices are projected to increase, potentially affecting rations and feed costs. Projected milk and livestock prices for FAPRI’s August 2007 Baseline are presented in Table 1. In general, milk prices are projected to decrease each year from 2007 though 2012 after the large increase in price from 2006 to 2007. Cattle prices are expected to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37978
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the August 2005 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Herbst, Brian K.; Knapek, George M.; Anderson, David P.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Raulston, J. Marc; Feldman, Paul A.; Schumann, Keith D.; Klose, Steven L.; Schwart, Robert B., Jr.; Zimmel, Peter.
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Bill) on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2002-2009 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming and ranching operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) August 2005 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine the farms’...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42133
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the August 2006 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Herbst, Brian K.; Knapek, George M.; Anderson, David P.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Raulston, J. Marc; Fumasi, Roland J.; Klose, Steven L.; Zimmel, Peter.
The Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University develops and maintains data to simulate 100 representative crop, dairy, and livestock operations in major production areas in 28 states. The chief purpose of this analysis is to project those farms’ economic viability by region and commodity for 2006 through 2011. The data necessary to simulate the economic activity of these operations is developed through ongoing cooperation with panels of agricultural producers in each of these states. The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) provided projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates in their August 2006 Baseline. Under the August 2006 Baseline, 14 of the 65 crop farms are considered in good...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42101
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2005 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Herbst, Brian K.; Knapek, George M.; Anderson, David P.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Raulston, J. Marc; Feldman, Paul A.; Schumann, Keith D.; Klose, Steven L.; Schwart, Robert B., Jr.; Zimmel, Peter.
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Bill) on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2002-2009 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming and ranching operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) January 2005 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine the farms’...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42135
Registros recuperados: 49
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