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| Shrestha, Shailesh; Himics, Mihaly; Van Doorslaer, Benjamin; Ciaian, Pavel. |
| The current paper investigates the medium term impact of climate changes on EU agriculture. We employ CAPRI partial equilibrium modelling framework. The results indicate that within the EU, there will be both winners and losers, with some regions benefitting from climate change, while other regions suffering losses in production and welfare. In general, there are relatively small market effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of total agricultural income, land use and welfare change by approximately between -0.3% and 2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with the effects increase by a factor higher than 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Regional impacts; CAPRI; Market effects; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122546 |
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| Himics, Mihaly; Potori, Norbert. |
| In our paper, we briefly discuss the outlook for the main agricultural sectors in Hungary until 2013, and present some of the latest results of our modelling work at the Research Institute for Agricultural Economics (AKI). In addition, we provide a short methodological overview of the applied modelling tools. To strengthen the quantitative analysis capacity during the pre-accession period, AKI developed a partial equilibrium model (Hungarian Simulation Model or HUSIM) by the end of the 1990's. Since then, AKI has been regularly carrying out agricultural policy analyses by applying this economic model. After gathering experiences with HUSIM, strong demand was raised on a modelling tool that enables us to investigate the structural changes in agriculture in... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Mid-term prospects; Decoupling; Farm group model; FARM-T; Hungary.; Farm Management. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7844 |
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| Himics, Mihaly; Van Doorslaer, Benjamin; Ciaian, Pavel; Shrestha, Shailesh. |
| In this paper the impact of possible input cost developments on the EU agriculture is analysed under ceteris paribus conditions. Two scenarios are developed with the partial equilibrium model CAPRI. The scenarios assume symmetric input price changes in positive and negative directions around a projected baseline in year 2020. The magnitude of the input price changes are based on observed volatility. To measure the volatility, the annual time-series of the CoCo database were analysed, which contains input cost estimates for a multitude of agricultural activities and cost categories at the geographical level of the EU countries. Our results suggest that the uncertainty in input cost development has a strong potential to affect commodity market balances and... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Input costs; Volatility; CAPRI; Farm income; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122531 |
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| Himics, Mihaly. |
| This paper provides an opportunity for the reader to get an insight into the current modelling work at the Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, Hungary (AKI). After giving a short summary of the applied econometric models in the past decade, our latest development, the farm group model FARM-T will be introduced. Before introducing FARM-T in details, we devote the second part of the paper to collect all the major challenges we faced during the model development process, when we tried to establish a model structure, with which the possible effects of the introduction of the Single Payment Scheme (SPS) in Hungary can be properly estimated. Therefore, this chapter is meant to explain our motivation for choosing the applied model concept. In the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: FARM-T; Partial equilibrium model; Farm groups; Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6697 |
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