SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Hertel, Thomas W.; Preckel, Paul V.; Cranfield, John A.L.; Ivanic, Maros.

Poverty reduction is an increasingly important consideration in the deliberations over multilateral trade liberalization. However, the analytical procedures used to assess the impacts of multilateral trade liberalization on poverty are rudimentary, at best. Most poverty studies have focused on a single country using detailed household survey data. When it comes to multi-country, global trade liberalization analyses, researchers are forced to resort to a discussion of average, or per capita effects, suggesting that if per capita real income rises, then poverty will fall. As we show in this paper, such an inference can be misleading. Our paper combines results from a newly available international, cross-section consumption analysis for 1996, with earnings...

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND THE STRUCTURE OF POVERTY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28697

Hertel, Thomas W.; Ivanic, Maros; Preckel, Paul V.; Cranfield, John A.L..

"Globalization increases poverty" is a common assertion made by critics of globalization. The proliferation of low-wage jobs and higher food prices are some of the arguments brought forward in support of this argument. One of the hallmarks of globalization is the systematic dismantling of barriers to trade. Advocates of trade liberalization particularly industrialized country agriculture reform argue that the ensuing rise in world prices for agriculture products will boost rural incomes, thereby reducing poverty in the poorest countries, where the bulk of world poverty resides. Who is right? The goal of this paper is take a systematic look at the structure of poverty across a range of developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, and...

Evaluating Poverty Impacts of Globalization and Trade Policy Changes on Agricultural Producers

Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28691

Valenzuela, Ernesto; Hertel, Thomas W.; Ivanic, Maros; Nin Pratt, Alejandro.

The poverty effects and in particular the impact of trade liberalization on smallholder livestock producers in African and South East Asian developing countries (Malawi, Zambia, Uganda, Mozambique, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Philippines) is addressed by disaggregating income sources within agriculture into earnings from crop and livestock production. Given that livestock production in our developing country sample is a marginal activity with very little concentration households are stratified according to a small dependence on livestock earnings, and thus separating them from crops specialized earnings households, households who are wage labor specialized, transfer dependent households, and diversified households. We combine a macro-economic...

Agriculture Productivity Growth: Is the Current Trend on the Track to Poverty Reduction?

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20242

Valenzuela, Ernesto; Ivanic, Maros; Ludena, Carlos E.; Hertel, Thomas W..

In this study we evaluate the effect of annual productivity growth in agriculture over the 1991-2001 period on poverty in eleven developing countries. We compare this with the optimal pattern of productivity growth of comparable cost with the sole goal of maximizing poverty reduction. This comparison reveals that regional agricultural development is a viable option in the fight for poverty reduction.

THE EARNINGS EFFECTS OF MULTILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR POVERTY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19152

Hertel, Thomas W.; Ivanic, Maros; Preckel, Paul V.; Cranfield, John A.L..

Poverty reduction is an increasingly important consideration in the deliberations over multilateral trade liberalization. However, the analytical procedures used to assess the impacts of multilateral trade liberalization on poverty are rudimentary, at best. Most poverty studies have focused on a single country using detailed household survey data. When it comes to multi-country, global trade liberalization analyses, researchers are forced to resort to a discussion of average, or per capita effects, suggesting that if per capita real income rises, then poverty will fall. As we show in this paper, such an inference can be misleading. Our paper combines results from a new international, cross-section consumption analysis, with earnings data from household...

HOW CONFIDENT CAN WE BE IN CGE-BASED ASSESSMENTS OF FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS?

Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28700

Hertel, Thomas W.; Hummels, David; Ivanic, Maros; Keeney, Roman.

With the proliferation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) over the past decade, demand for quantitative analysis of their likely impacts has surged. The main quantitative tool for performing such analysis is Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling. Yet these models have been widely criticized for performing poorly (Kehoe, 2002) and having weak econometric foundations (McKitrick, 1998; Jorgenson, 1984). FTA results have been shown to be particularly sensitive to the trade elasticities, with small trade elasticities generating large terms of trade effects and relatively modest efficiency gains, whereas large trade elasticities lead to the opposite result. Critics are understandably wary of results being determined largely by the authors' choice of trade...

Promoting global agricultural growth and poverty reduction

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28690

Ivanic, Maros; Martin, William J..

Constraints on resources, growth in demand, and a slowdown in agricultural productivity raise concerns that food prices may rise substantially over the next decades. The impacts of such higher prices on the poor and the required mitigating policy responses to this problem remain unclear. This paper uses a global general equilibrium model, projections of global growth and microeconomic household models, to project potential implications for incomes, food production and poverty. We find that higher agricultural productivity would generally lower poverty, with different impacts depending where the productivity growth occurs, while protection policies that reduce imports would generally raise poverty.

A Need for Caution in Applying the Volume-Based Special Safeguard Mechanism

Palavras-chave: Poverty; Growth; Projections; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61098

Ivanic, Maros; Martin, William J..

The proximate cause of the collapse of the Doha Agenda negotiations in 2008 was disagreement over the volume-based Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM). This measure would provide a right, but not an obligation, for developing countries to impose a duty when imports increase. While many simulations of its impact on domestic prices are available, there appear to be no analyses of its potential impacts on the welfare of poor households. Whether such a safeguard will increase or reduce poverty can only be determined empirically—if there are enough small, poor farmers who are net sellers of the commodity when the duty is imposed, then imposition of a safeguard duty may reduce poverty. If, by contrast, most small, poor farmers are net buyers of the products...