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| Kaylen, Michael S.; Devino, Gary T.; Procter, Michael H.. |
| Qualitative models can be used for decision making under uncertainty. This provides a useful framework for evaluating the models. If the costs for every action/state of nature combination are known, decisions made using a well-calibrated model would result in actual costs being close to expected costs. In addition, the actual cost can be compared to the cost of perfect foresight actions, giving a bound on the value of a better model. Application of these procedures is made using a logit model developed to predict Missouri country grain elevator bankruptcy. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 1988 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29262 |
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| Lambert, David K.; McCarl, Bruce A.; He, Quifen; Kaylen, Michael S.; Rosenthal, Wesley; Chang, Ching-Cheng; Nayda, W.I.. |
| Agriculture operates in an uncertain environment. Yields, prices, and resource usage can change dramatically from year to year. However, most analyses of the agricultural sector, at least those using mathematical programming methods, assume decision making is based on average yields, ignoring yield variability. This study examines how explicit consideration of stochastic yield outcomes influence a sector analysis. We develop a model that can be used for stochastic sector analysis. We extend the risk framework developed by Hazell and others to incorporate discrete yield outcomes as well as consumption activities dependent upon yield outcomes. An empirical application addresses a comparison between sector analysis with and without considerations of the... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural sector analysis; Global warming; Partial equilibrium models; Stochastic programming; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15257 |
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| Qiu, Zeyuan; Prato, Anthony A.; Kaylen, Michael S.. |
| This paper evaluates the economic and environmental tradeoffs at watershed scale by incorporating both economic and environmental risks in agricultural production. The Target MOTAD model is modified by imposing a probability-constrained objective function to capture the yield uncertainty caused by random allocation of farming systems to soil types and by introducing environmental targets to incorporate environmental risk due to random storm events. This framework is used to determine the tradeoffs frontier between watershed net return and sediment yield and nitrogen concentration in runoff in Goodwater Creek watershed, Missouri. The frontier is significantly affected by environmental risk preference. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31523 |
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| Preckel, Paul V.; Loehman, Edna T.; Kaylen, Michael S.. |
| Procedures are needed to evaluate the benefits of the provision of information. This paper shows how to apply a money metric definition of the value of information for this purpose. The application is to microeconomic input choices for agricultural production, and the information to be valued concerns the effect of fertilization on sorghum yield. In this paper application both output price and output level are stochastic, and the probability distribution of output is affected by the chosen level of fertilizer. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1987 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32228 |
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