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| Ning, Wei; Kuan-jiang, Bian; Zhi-fa, Yuan. |
| Based on the 2008 Shaanxi Statistical Yearbook and the relevant data of Shaanxi GDP in the years 1952-2007, SPSS statistical software and time series analysis are used to establish ARIMA (1.2,1) time series model, according to the four steps, recognition rules and stationary test of time series under AIC criterion. ACF graph and PACF graph are used to conduct the applicability test on model. Then, the actual value and predicted value in the years 2002-2007 are compared in order to forecast the GDP of Shaanxi Province in the next 6 years based on this model. Result shows that the relative error of actual value and predicted value is within the range of 5%, and the forecasting effect of this model is relatively good. It is forecasted that the GDP of Shaanxi... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: GDP; ARIMA model; ACF graph; PACF graph; Time series analysis; Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93238 |
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| Kuan-jiang, Bian; Zhen-li, Zhang; Hong-jing, Jiang. |
| Based on the assumption that the interest rate is constant, the unemployment insurance risk model for migrant workers is established. The premium income and the expense of this risk model are compound Poisson process. Among them, the premium of an insurance policy and the claim amount of unemployment insurance belong to random sequence. The proof procedure of model deduction and relevant ruin probability are put forward, and then the estimation formula for exact value of ruin probability of insurance company is obtained without considering the interest rate. Taking a certain city in China as an example, willingness investigation on unemployment insurance purchase is carried out among some migrant workers in six industries. According to the investigation... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Unemployment insurance; Income of farmers; Ruin probability; Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93233 |
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