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| Li, NaiChia; Roe, Terry L.. |
| The maintained hypotheses embodied in structural general equilibrium models calibrated to data have tended to make economists and policy makers insecure regarding their empirical foundation. Advances in dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) theory and its empirical application have exacerbated this insecurity since the forecasts provide by these models brings questions of validation to the forefront. Here, methods are developed to measure the magnitude of bias in DGE forecasts that are simple to implement. We adopted the concordance correlation measure, and introduced a time function method to assess the bias in DGE forecasts. A time-series confidence interval method is also introduced to formally judge the "good" forecasts from the "bad". A calibrated DGE... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21325 |
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| Li, NaiChia; Roe, Terry L.; Diao, Xinshen; Somwaru, Agapi. |
| Morocco is engaged in a number of economic reforms to better position the country's integration into world markets. Her agricultural sector is particularly important as its trade, GDP, and employment share are relatively large. We analyze Morocco's agricultural trade growth trends over the past 40 years (1962 - 2004) using SITC 4-digit bilateral agricultural trade data. The data are analyzed using the trend and cycles decomposition (TCD) approach and measurement of trade growth at the intensive and extensive margin. We find a high concentration of agriculture trade in both commodities and trading partners. Morocco has also lost export shares in EU to other EU countries in her top exporting commodities. Another finding suggests that agricultural export... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9834 |
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