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Registros recuperados: 26
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Comparison of Risk in Organic, Integrated and Conventional Cropping Systems in Eastern Norway AgEcon
Lien, Gudbrand D.; Flaten, Ola; Korsaeth, Audun; Schumann, Keith D.; Richardson, James W.; Eltun, Ragnar.
This study exemplifies the first implementation experiences of Balanced Scorecard and the first results of them in Ukrainian agricultural enterprises. Essential prerequisites for the functioning of the BSC concept into practical agriculture will be discussed. Finally, some critical success factors to the BSC adoption by agricultural companies will be identified.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Balanced Scorecard; Strategic Management; Ukraine; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24251
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Technical efficiency in competing panel data models: A study of Norwegian grain farming AgEcon
Kumbhakar, Subal C.; Lien, Gudbrand D.; Hardaker, J. Brian.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114673
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Organic Dairy Farming in Norway Under the 100% Organically Produced Feed Requirement AgEcon
Flaten, Ola; Lien, Gudbrand D..
The EU regulation governing organic production will require 100% organic feed in organic dairy systems from August 2005 compared with 85% currently in Norway. This study aimed to assess adjustments in resource use and financial impacts on organic dairy herds using a discrete stochastic programming model. Farm management effects of the regulatory change varied between farm types. For the two organic dairy systems examined, both having a milk quota of 100 000 litres but with varying farmland availability, the introduction of the 100% organic feed regulation resulted in an economic loss of approximately 6-8% of the net income compared to the current regime. The economic loss was mainly due to the considerable higher price of organic compared to conventional...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Feed regulation; Organic farming; Milk production; Stochastic programming; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24245
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OPTIMAL ECONOMIC LENGTH OF LEYS: A DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING APPROACH AgEcon
Hegrenes, Agnar; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Lien, Gudbrand D..
A model is presented to investigate the optimal economic life cycle of grass leys with winter damage problems in northern Norway and to determine the threshold of winter damage before it is profitable to re-seed. A two-level hierarchic Markov process has been constructed using the MLHMP software. The model takes uncertainty concerning yield potential, damage estimation and weather dependent random fluctuations into account. A Kalman filter technique is used for updating of knowledge on yield potential and damage level. The application of the model is demonstrated using data from two commercial Norwegian farms. Since parameter estimates vary considerably among farms, it is concluded that decision support concerning optimal economic life cycle of grass leys...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25848
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Risk in Public Policy Making: A Neglected Issue in Australia AgEcon
Hardaker, J. Brian; Fleming, Euan M.; Lien, Gudbrand D..
We argue for greater recognition of the risky nature of most policy decisions. In this context we discuss the gulf between public risk perceptions and attitudes and those of 'experts'. Public views of risk are often inconsistent and seemingly irrational. They nevertheless influence policy choices in a democracy. On the other hand, experts often claim unjustifiable levels of confidence in their predictions of policy choice outcomes, creating a lack of public faith in their recommendations. While risky policy choices deserve more systematic decision analysis, there is a need for more effective interaction between policy makers, decision analysts and the public.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Policy-making; Risk; Uncertainty; Decision Analysis; Perceptions; Subjectivity; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5997
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STOCHASTIC EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS USING MULTIPLE UTILITY FUNCTIONS AgEcon
Schumann, Keith D.; Richardson, James W.; Lien, Gudbrand D.; Hardaker, J. Brian.
Evaluating the risk of a particular decision depends on the risk aversion of the decision maker related to the underlying utility function. The objective of this paper is to use stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to compare the ranking of risky alternatives using alternative utility functional forms.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19957
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Stochastic efficiency analysis with risk aversion bounds: a simplified approach AgEcon
Hardaker, J. Brian; Richardson, James W.; Lien, Gudbrand D.; Schumann, Keith D..
A method of stochastic dominance analysis with respect to a function (SDRF) is described and illustrated. The method, called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), orders a set of risky alternatives in terms of certainty equivalents for a specified range of attitudes to risk. It can be applied for conforming utility functions with risk attitudes defined by corresponding ranges of absolute, relative or partial risk aversion coefficients. Unlike conventional SDRF, SERF involves comparing each alternative with all the other alternatives simultaneously, not pairwise, and hence can produce a smaller efficient set than that found by simple pairwise SDRF over the same range of risk attitudes. Moreover, the method can be implemented in a simple...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117962
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Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Subsidies on Farm Production in Case of Endogenous Input Quantities AgEcon
Henningsen, Arne; Kumbhakar, Subal C.; Lien, Gudbrand D..
The effect of subsidies on farm production has been a major topic in agricultural economics for several decades. We present a new approach for analyzing the effects of different types of coupled and decoupled subsidies on farm production with econometric methods. In contrast to most previous studies, our approach is entirely based on a theoretical microeconomic model, explicitly allows subsidies to have an impact on input use, and takes linkages between the farm and the farm household into account.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114548
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Production risk in multi-output industries: estimates from Norwegian dairy farms AgEcon
Tveteras, Ragnar; Flaten, Ola; Lien, Gudbrand D..
Farmers who produce multiple outputs are portfolio managers in the sense that they use inputs to balance expected economic return and variance of return. This paper estimates the structure of the stochastic multi-output production technology in Norwegian dairy farming, allowing for a more flexible specification of the technology than previous studies. We find that an increase in input levels leads primarily to higher output variability, and that inputs also influence the covariance of shocks between outputs. Risk-reducing effects of inputs on outputs are primarily present in the covariance functions. Technical change leads to shifts in the profit distribution over the data period, but no welfare improvement for risk-averse farmers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Multi-output technologies; Production risk; Dairy farming; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43958
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Term Structure of Volatility and Price Jumps in Agricultural Markets - Evidence from Option Data AgEcon
Koekebakker, Steen; Lien, Gudbrand D..
Empirical evidence suggests that agricultural futures price movements have fat-tailed distributions and exhibit sudden and unexpected price jumps. There is also evidence that the volatility of futures prices contains a term structure depending on both calendar-time and time to maturity. This paper extends Bates (1991) jump-diffusion option pricing model by including both seasonal and maturity effects in volatility. An in-sample fit to market option prices on wheat futures shows that our model outperforms previous models considered in the literature. A numerical example illustrates the economic significance of our results for option valuation.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Option pricing; Futures; Term structure of volatility; Jump-diffusion; Agricultural markets; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24874
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Assisting Whole-Farm Decision-Making Through Stochastic Budgeting AgEcon
Lien, Gudbrand D..
Stochastic budgeting is used to simulate the business and financial risk and the performance over a six-year planning horizon on a Norwegian dairy farm. A major difficulty with stochastic whole-farm budgeting lies in identifying and measuring dependency relationships between stochastic variables. Some methods to account for these stochastic dependencies are illustrated. The financial feasibility of different investment and management strategies is evaluated. In contrast with earlier studies with stochastic farm budgeting, the option aspect is included in the analysis.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Decision analysis; Whole-farm stochastic budgeting; Monte Carlo simulation; Real option; Farm Management.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24903
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What Next in Decision Analysis for Agricultural and Resource Economics? AgEcon
Hardaker, J. Brian; Lien, Gudbrand D..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48160
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DETERMINANTS OF PART-TIME FARMING AND ITS EFFECT ON FARM PRODUCTIVITY AND EFFICIENCY AgEcon
Lien, Gudbrand D.; Kumbhakar, Subal C.; Hardaker, J. Brian.
Little attention has been given in the agricultural economics literature to the impact of off-farm work on farm productivity and efficiency. More knowledge about what determines part-time farming and whether farm productivity and efficiency are affected by part-time farming could help policy makers introduce better targeted rural development policies. This paper aims to fill the above-mentioned gaps by first analysing factors that influence the choice of off-farm work; and then examining how off-farm work influences productivity and technical efficiency at the farm level. An unbalanced panel data set from 1991 to 2005 from Norwegian grain farms is used for this purpose. The results show that the likelihood of off-farm work and the share of time allocated...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Off-farm work; Productivity; Efficiency; Unobserved heterogeneity; Panel data; Farm Management.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6701
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Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Subsidies on Farm Production in Case of Endogenous Input Quantities AgEcon
Henningsen, Arne; Kumbhakar, Subal C.; Lien, Gudbrand D..
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/29/09.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Panel data; Subsidies; Household model; Endogeneity; Norwegian grain farming; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Production Economics.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49728
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Comparison of Risk Between Cropping Systems in Eastern Norway AgEcon
Lien, Gudbrand D.; Flaten, Ola; Schumann, Keith D.; Richardson, James W.; Korsaeth, Audun; Eltun, Ragnar.
The aim of this study was to compare production and policy risk of organic, integrated and conventional cropping systems in Norway. Experimental cropping system data (1991-1999) from eastern Norway were combined with budgeted data. Empirical distributions of total farm income for different cropping systems were estimated with a simulation model that uses a multivariate kernel density function to smooth the limited experimental data. Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) was used to rank the cropping systems for farmers with various risk aversion levels. The results show that the organic system had the greatest net farm income variability, but the existing payment system and organic price premiums makes it the most economically viable...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Organic; Integrated and conventional crop farming; Stochastic simulation; Multivariate kernel estimator; Risk aversion; Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; C44.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24663
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A Comparison of Risk Exposure in Aquaculture and Agricultural Businesses AgEcon
Flaten, Ola; Lien, Gudbrand D.; Tveteras, Ragnar.
Agriculture and aquaculture have common features associated with their biological nature affecting risk exposure of the businesses. The aim of this paper is to compare risk exposure in salmon farming and agricultural enterprises in Norway by using an implicit error component model to examine the risk structure of yields, prices and economic returns at the farm level. Results indicate a higher farm-level year-to-year variability in yields, prices and economic returns in salmon farming than in agricultural enterprises. The variability in livestock enterprises was generally lower than for crop enterprises. Return on assets was highest in salmon farming with an average annual return of 9.2%. All of the agricultural farm types exhibited a negative average...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Variability; Norway; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44052
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Stochastic Efficiency Analysis With Risk Aversion Bounds: A Simplified Approach AgEcon
Hardaker, J. Brian; Lien, Gudbrand D..
A method of stochastic dominance analysis with respect to a function (SDRF) is described and illustrated. The method, called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), partitions a set of risky alternatives in terms of certainty equivalents for a specified range of attitudes to risk. It can be applied for any utility function with risk attitudes defined by corresponding ranges of absolute, relative or partial risk aversion coefficients. SERF involves comparing each alternative with all the other alternatives simultaneously, not pairwise as with conventional SDRF. Hence it yields a subset of the efficient set found by SDRF. Moreover, the method is readily implemented in a simple spreadsheet with no special software needed.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Stochastic dominance with respect to a function; Risk aversion.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12954
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Modelling Risks in the Salmon Industry and Markets AgEcon
Asheim, Leif Jarle; Lien, Gudbrand D.; Richardson, James W.; Tveteras, Ragnar; Veggeland, Frode.
The paper proposes developing a trade model for salmon to assist in discussions and negotiations of current international salmon trade issues and major risk problems facing the salmon industry. Two modeling approaches are discussed: 1) developing a traditional equilibrium trade programming model designed to maximize total welfare across all model regions by solving for a medium-term price that balances the amount of salmon supplied by the world region to the among processed and consumed by this region; and 2) developing an econometric stochastic simulation model based on linear or non-linear equations. Some disadvantages and weaknesses of the programming model are discussed, whereas the econometric model needs further exploration and consideration. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risks; Salmon; Programming model; Econometric model; International trade; Livestock Production/Industries; C60; C50.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56000
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Risk programming and sparse data: how to get more reliable results AgEcon
Hardaker, J. Brian; Lien, Gudbrand D.; Van Asseldonk, Marcel A.P.M.; Richardson, James W.; Hegrenes, Agnar.
Because relevant historical data for farms are inevitably sparse, most risk programming studies rely on few observations. We discuss how to use available information to derive an appropriate multivariate distribution function that can be sampled for a more complete representation of the possible risks in riskbased models. For the particular example of a Norwegian mixed livestock and crop farm, the solution is shown to be unstable with few states, although the cost of picking a sub-optimal plan declines with increases in number of states by Latin Hypercube sampling.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk programming; States of nature; Sparse data; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44051
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Stochastic Utility-Efficient Programming of Organic Dairy Farms AgEcon
Flaten, Ola; Lien, Gudbrand D..
Opportunities to make sequential decisions and adjust activities as a season progresses and more information becomes available characterize the farm management process. In this paper, we present a discrete stochastic two-stage utility efficient programming model of organic dairy farms, which includes risk aversion in the decision maker's objective function as well as both embedded risk (stochastic programming with resource) and non-embedded risk (stochastic programming without recourse). Historical farm accountancy data and subjective judgments were combined to assess the nature of the uncertainty that affects the possible consequences of the decisions. The programming model was used within a stochastic dominance framework to examine optimal strategies...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Risk analysis; Stochastic programming; Stochastic dominance; Organic farming; Livestock Production/Industries; Q12; C61.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24743
Registros recuperados: 26
Primeira ... 12 ... Última
 

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