| According to the data of practical GDP time sequences from 1978 to 2009 provided by Henan Statistical Yearbook of every year, Hodrick-Prescott filter model is established, and it is disintegrated into tendency component (potential yield) and fluctuation component (yield gap). The critical division loci of filter model are 4 wave crest years (1980, 1988, 1996 and 2007), and 3 trough years (1984, 1992 and 2002). Thus since the opening up and reform, the economic growth fluctuation of Henan can be divided into 3 complete cycles and 2 incomplete cycles. Based on the economic situation and background within and without province, we preliminarily conclude the stage-characteristics of all growth cycles and the probable reasons of fluctuation. On the whole, the... |
