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| Jongeneel, Roelof A.; Longworth, Natasha; Huettel, Silke. |
| This paper analyses the dynamics in the farm size distribution for The Netherlands, Germany, Poland and Hungary. A (non-)stationary Markov model approach is used. The transition probabilities are explained by a set of exogenous (policy) variables. The models are estimated using an information theoretical approach, including non-sample (prior) information. The models can be used to simulate the impact of alternative dairy policies on the dairy sector structure. For all countries there is an autonomous decline in farm numbers over time (implying increase in average farm size). This trend continues irrespective of the EU dairy policy type. For both Hungary and Poland the role of the subsistence sector is expected to substantially decrease over time. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Farm size structure; Dairy; Milk quotas; Policy; Maximum entropy; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24772 |
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| Longworth, Natasha; Jongeneel, Roelof A.; Saatkamp, H.W.; Huirne, Ruud B.M.. |
| The new EU Animal Health Strategy suggests a shift in emphasis away from control towards prevention and surveillance activities for the management of threats to animal health. The optimal combination of these actions will differ among diseases and depend on largely unknown and uncertain costs and benefits. This paper reports an empirical investigation of this issue for the case of Avian Influenza. The results suggest that the optimal combination of actions will be dependent on the objective of the decision maker and that conflict exists between an optimal strategy which minimises costs to the government and one which maximises producer profits or minimises negative effects on human health. From the perspective of minimising the effects on human health,... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Avian influenza; Prevention; Control; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44200 |
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