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| Lu, Wencong C.; Kersten, Lutz. |
| Based on China's Agricultural Regional Market Equilibrium Model (CARMEM), the paper projects the production and consumption of rice, wheat and maize in China toward 2010 at both national and regional level under two different scenarios. The results show that China can ensure a stable grain market development under more liberalized internal and external conditions. Transmission of the world market prices as projected by the World Bank (2003) to the Chinese domestic market would lead to a long-run recovery of the growth in grain production. Total production of paddy rice, wheat and maize is forecast to increase from 386 million tons in the base period 2002 to over 420 million tons in 2010. However, the rate of grain self-supply will be 91% due to higher... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: China; Grain market; Projection; Multimarket model; Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Q11; Q13; Q18. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25662 |
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| Lu, Wencong C.; Xi, Aiqin; Ye, Jian. |
| This paper analyzed Chinese small-scale farmer's response to agricultural risks by using MOTAD model. Based on the household's data from the two villages Wangjia and Damao in Zhejiang province, we established "representative rural household" for each of the sampling villages. The results show that farmers in Zhejiang are quite sensitive to agricultural risks. However, different farming systems, the ratio of agricultural income to total family income, as well as the size of arable land, differentiates their risk response. The decision maker's risk preference not only affects the type of agricultural activities and corresponding scales they selected, but also have further effects on the micro agricultural production structure and stable growth of household's... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Farming household; Agricultural risks; Risk response; MOTAD Model; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; D1; C6; D2. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25656 |
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| Glauben, Thomas; Lu, Wencong C.; Brümmer, Bernhard. |
| Agricultural policy reform has been an important source of change in the Chinese agricultural sector. The reforms led to productivity growth and helped China in pursuing its self- sufficiency goal especially in the grain sector. To analyse whether observable productivity growth stems from technologically induced components, or from the market induced parts, a multi-input-multi-output model is derived using an econometric distance function framework. A decomposition allows to distinguish allocative effects, scale effects, technological change, and technical efficiency change. Data on farms in Zhejiang from 1986 to 1999 are used to analyse the impact of policy reform. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25896 |
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