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Mehr-Ebenen-Modelle in der Analyse agrarstruktureller Entwicklungen – Methodik und Implikationen AgEcon
Margarian, Anne.
Until now empirical analyses have not succeeded in the determination of a general upon agreed bunch of the most important driving forces of structural change in agriculture beyond the level of the national economy. It will be argued that the sometimes contradictory results of different studies are caused by the endogenous dynamics of structural change as well as by mixing up different levels of causality. The influence of single causes, therefore, is not necessarily characterised by linearity, symmetry and independence of other causes, of the location or of time. Multi-level-models are being presented as a method with the capability to cope with these problems by modelling hierarchical relations and dynamics in time simultaneously. The flexibility of the...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Structural change; Multi-level-model; Mixed model; Hierarchical causation; Endogenous restrictions; Community/Rural/Urban Development.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96764
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NACHBARSCHAFTS- UND KONJUNKTUREFFEKTE: ZUR AUFGABEWAHRSCHEINLICHKEIT LANDWIRTSCHAFTLICHER BETRIEBE AgEcon
Margarian, Anne.
D2_1
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Structural change; Farm-exits; Propensity; Proximity effect; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93961
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The Role of Small Farms in Structural Change AgEcon
Huettel, Silke; Margarian, Anne.
This paper explains regionally differentiated patterns of structural change based on a theoretical framework dealing with strategic interaction of farms on the land market. The main research question focuses on the causes of regionally persistent structures. An empirical Markov chain model is defined for the West German agricultural sector. Thereby it is possible to explain the probabilities of farm growth, decline or exit in terms of the current and former regional farm size structure. Further, the impact of variables describing the regional farm structure, thereby indicating market power of the large, the potential of high competition for land within a region and possibly high rents of the status quo in combination with sunk costs, is quantified. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Structural change; Strategic competition; Land market; Markov chain; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52853
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The Role of Small Farms in Structural Change AgEcon
Huettel, Silke; Margarian, Anne.
This paper explains regionally differentiated patterns of structural change based on a theoretical framework dealing with strategic interaction of farms on the land market. The main research question focuses on the causes of regionally persistent structures. An empirical Markov chain model is defined for the West German agricultural sector. Thereby it is possible to explain the probabilities of farm growth, decline or exit in terms of the current and former regional farm size structure. Further, the impact of variables describing the regional farm structure, thereby indicating market power of the large, the potential of high competition for land within a region and possibly high rents of the status quo in combination with sunk costs, is quantified. The...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Structural change; Strategic competition; Land market; Markov chain; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59519
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Sind die Pachten im Osten zu niedrig oder im Westen zu hoch? AgEcon
Margarian, Anne.
Zusammenfassung: Die Pachtpreise für Land in den neuen Bundesländern Deutschlands liegen deutlich unter denen im früheren Bundesgebiet. Im vorliegenden Bericht wird diskutiert, in wie weit das durch Skaleneffekte, die Marktmacht großer Betriebe, staatliche Regulationen der Pachtmärkte im Osten und/oder einen verzögerten Agrarstrukturwandel im Westen erklärt werden kann. Das Schätzmodell auf Landkreisebene zeigt einen nicht-linearen Zusammenhang zwischen den Erklärungsgrößen und den Pachtpreisen. Darüber hinaus spielt im Osten die Betriebsstruktur in der Erklärung der Pachtpreise eine untergeordnete Rolle, während die relative Immobilität der Betriebe im Westen zumindest teilweise die "zu hohen" Pachtpreise dort erklärt....
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Bodenmarkt; Agrarstrukturwandel; Marktmacht; Land market; Structural change; Market power; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Q15; Q31; L11; D43; D51.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104609
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Sustainable rural development: What is the role of the agri-food sector? AgEcon
Just, Flemming; Emmanuel, Adinyira; Oteng-Seifah, Samuel; Theophilus, Adjei-Kumi; Theophilus, Ernst-August; Cimpoies, Dragos; Zhemoyda, Oleksandr V.; Portyanko, Mariya; Danilowska, Alina; Danilowska, Anna; Kosodiy, Roman; Mishenin, Eugeniy; Bokusheva, Raushan; Sannikova, Marina; Heidelbach, Olaf; Jia, Xiangping; Heidhues, Franz; Zeller, Manfred; Baker, Derek; Abildtrup, Jens; Hedetoft, Anders; Milczarek, Dominika; Malak-Rawlikowska, Agata; Falkowski, Jan; Barussaud, Emilien; Raymond, Richard; Poletto, Ana; Margarian, Anne; Fock, Achim; Fock, Karin; Pufahl, Andrea; Grajewski, Regina; Sholpan, Sholpan; Sannikova, Marina; Fahrmann, Barbara; Maciejczak, Mariusz; Was, Adam.
This volume of proceedings, available both as hard copy and pdf, is an edited compilation of selected contributions to the IAMO Forum 2007, which will be held in Halle (Saale), Germany, at the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe from 27 to 29 June 2007. We would like to thank all those persons and organisations who contributed to the realisation of the IAMO Forum 2007 and the volume in hand. First of all, we thank all lecturers, whose commitment and papers made both the conference and the publication possible. Furthermore, we appreciate the financial support provided by the Federal Ministry of, Food, Agriculture, and Consumer Protection and the Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt. The conference would not be successful...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Industrial Organization; Labor and Human Capital.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92324
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Spatial Structure of the Food Industry in Germany AgEcon
Gouzhary, Izhar; Margarian, Anne.
Food production and food processing, nowadays, are economic activities in which local and global strategies are interconnected. Moreover the importance of the food industry in total manufacturing is growing; local production systems are competing on the global market by producing specific quality goods or products. Many local regions have attempted to improve their economic situation by encouraging the growth of manufacturing activities. The basic objective of this study to determine and analyze the patterns of food manufacturing and the spatial changes between 2007 and 2001 in the 439 regions in Germany.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Spatial analysis; Food; Germany.; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Labor and Human Capital.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95330
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Restrictions of empirical policy analyses: the example of the evaluation of rural development policies AgEcon
Margarian, Anne.
The present paper asks under what circumstances a standardisation of evaluations would be feasible in order to enable a comprehensible aggregation of results for the European administration. We argue that in the complex environment of rural development the adequate definition of system boundaries is a precondition for the successful application of empirical methods and the identification of causal effects. If macro effects and self-enforcing effects are important, the objects of inquiry have to be defined on a higher observational level. In this case, the statistical identification may not be possible because there might be hardly any comparable (“counterfactual”) observations. We conclude that evaluators need definite theoretical guidance in order to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Evaluation; Complex systems; Causal inference; Counterfactual approach; Community/Rural/Urban Development; O22; Q18; R58; C51.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95320
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The regional specifity of structural change in agriculture: An assessment of the role of farmers’ strategic behaviour on the land market AgEcon
Margarian, Anne.
Among the family-farms in western Germany, significant regional differences are observable. They exist not only with respect to present farm-structure but also with respect to patterns of structural change. In the present paper, the different farm-development-strategies that cause these regional patterns are explained economically. As a central cause for their stability in a competitive environment, the relatedness of agricultural production to the non-renewable factor land is identified. Moreover, the coordination of the different strategies, which results in regional clusters, is shown to evolve endogenously in a model of strategic interaction on the land-market. It is demonstrated that due to the existence of rents of the status quo and resulting...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Market Structure; Firm Behaviour; Equilibria; Rationality; Farming; Complementarity; Competition; Disequilibrium Dynamics; Agriculture; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Institutional and Behavioral Economics.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59522
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Regional asymmetries in farm size AgEcon
Huettel, Silke; Margarian, Anne; von Schlippenbach, Vanessa.
This paper explores how the initial farm size structure affects the exit decision of farms inducing free land capacities, and the allocation of the newly available land resources to the remaining farms in a particular region. We model an agricultural market where large and small firms first decide whether to leave the market or not; in case of continuing in production the farms compete for getting access to additional land resources in a Vickrey auction. We find that larger farms allocate more additional quantity than small farms; the latter are more likely to leave the market. An empirical illustration gives further support and reveals the relation between farm size structure, farm exits and growth of the large.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Asymmetries; Land market; Capacity allocation; Vickrey auction; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; L11; L12; Q12.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62046
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Diskussionsbeitrag zu: Christian H.C.A. Henning und Jerzy Michalek: Ökonometrische Methoden der Politikevaluation: Meilenstein für eine sinnvolle Agrarpolitik der 2. Säule oder akademische Fingerübung? Agrarwirtschaft 57 (2008), Heft 3/4 AgEcon
Margarian, Anne.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97704
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Gewinnentwicklung und Betriebsaufgabe in der Landwirtschaft: Angebotseffekte, Nachfrageeffekte und regionale Heterogenität AgEcon
Margarian, Anne.
Zusammenfassung: Das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit besteht in der Bestimmung der Betriebsaufgabewahrscheinlichkeit verschiedener Betriebstypen im Westen Deutschlands in Abhängigkeit von Gewinnniveau und Gewinnentwicklung. Dabei wird davon ausgegangen, dass die Reaktion der Betriebe auch von der erwarteten Nachhaltigkeit der Gewinnschwankungen sowie von der Betroffenheit anderer Betriebe abhängt. Es wird deshalb auch erwartet, dass die Betriebe in Abhängigkeit vom regionalen Kontext unterschiedlich reagieren. Die Gewinnerwartung der Betriebe wird mithilfe des Testbetriebsnetzes des BMELV geschätzt. Die Betriebsaufgabewahrscheinlichkeit wird in einem zweiten Schritt anhand der flächendeckenden Daten der Agrarstrukturerhebung in einem logistischen Modell für...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agrarstrukturwandel; Betriebsaufgabeentscheidung; Heterogene Effekte; Nachbarschaftseffekte; Farm structural change; Farm-exit decision; Heterogeneous effects; Neighbour-hood effects; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Industrial Organization; Land Economics/Use; D22; D92; L16; L23; Q12.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102643
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Methodische Ansätze zur Quantifizierung der Arbeitsplatzeffekte von Maßnahmen zur ländlichen Entwicklung AgEcon
Margarian, Anne.
Zusammenfassung: In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden mögliche methodische Ansätze zur Beurteilung von Arbeitsplatzeffekten von Fördermaßnahmen für den ländlichen Raum und insbesondere der Integrierten Ländlichen Entwicklung (ILE) vorgestellt und diskutiert. Aufgenommen wurden auch Methoden, deren Eignung für diese spezifischen Bewertungen verneint wird. Aus diesem Grund ist die vorliegende Arbeit nicht nur mit Blick auf die Bewertung der ILE zu lesen, sondern kann auch über mögliche Herangehensweisen an die Bewertung anderer Maßnahmen zur Entwicklung des ländlichen Raumes informieren. Die Diskussion der verschiedenen Methoden zeigt, dass es notwendig ist, die einer Wirkung zugrunde liegenden Zusammenhänge genau zu kennen, um die tatsächliche Wirkung einer...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Evaluation; Wirkungsanalyse; Politik für den ländlichen Raum; Ar­beitsplatzeffekte; Evaluation; Causal analysis; Rural development measures; Employment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C18; C54; R15; R58.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102642
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