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| Li, Jia; Hanrahan, Kevin F.; McErlean, Seamus. |
| This paper uses cointegration procedures to test for agricultural commodity futures market efficiency in the UK. Cointegration between spot and futures prices is a necessary condition for market efficiency where these prices are characterised by stochastic trends (Lai and Lai 1991). In addition, acceptance of the 'unbiasedness hypothesis' requires that the spot and lagged futures prices are cointegrated with the cointegrating vector (1, -1). Alternatively, Brenner and Kroner (1995) use a no-arbitrage cost-of-carry model to argue that the existence of cointegration between spot and futures prices depends on the time series properties of the cost-of-carry. According to Brenner and Kroner (1995), a tri-variate cointegrating relationship (the BK... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20203 |
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| Zhang, Lichun; McErlean, Seamus; Patton, Myles. |
| This paper examines farmers’ decision making under risk and uncertainty. In particular, the study identifies the type of risk preference (averse, neutral or seeking) and measures the magnitude of risk preference before and after the introduction of the Single Farm Payment (SFP). The analysis therefore provides an insight into the impact of this fundamental policy change on farmer risk behaviour. Furthermore, it examines agricultural production decision making under price uncertainty. Empirically, it evaluates the impact of risk and uncertainty using Farm Business Survey (FBS) data of NI dairy farms. Using an econometric approach (maximize expected utility), a comprehensive methodology is employed that enables price uncertainty and risk preference under the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91802 |
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| McErlean, Seamus; Wu, Ziping; Moss, Joan E.; IJpelaar, Jos; Doherty, Andrew. |
| In the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, so-called ‘blue box’ support measures were exempted from reduction commitments, provided they were delivered under ‘production-limiting’ programs. Although classified as ‘blue box’, the EU system of direct payments (DP) to beef farmers imposes ‘claim-limiting’ restrictions rather than ‘production-limiting’ restrictions, allowing farmers to keep additional animals over and above the number upon which they are eligible to claim DP. The present paper provides empirical evidence that EU direct payments capitalise into the market prices of male calves and young steers in Ireland. It is also likely that DP capitalises into the prices of beef cows and heifers. Given this capitalisation process, some farmers can... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116173 |
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