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Climate trends in the municipality of Pelotas, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil REA
Kruel,Izabele B.; Meschiatti,Monica C.; Blain,Gabriel C.; Ávila,Ana M. H. de.
ABSTRACT Changes in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: General extreme value distribution; Time dependent model; Extreme weather events.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-69162015000400769
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Inadequacy of the gamma distribution to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index AGRIAMBI
Blain,Gabriel C.; Meschiatti,Monica C..
ABSTRACT The Standardized Precipitation Index was developed as a probability-based index able to monitor rainfall deficit in a standardized or normalized way. Thus, the performance of this drought index is affected by the use of a distribution that does not provide an appropriate fit for the rainfall data. The goal of this study was to evaluate the adjustment of the gamma distribution for the rainfall amounts summed over several time scales (Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil), to assess the goodness-of-fit of alternative distributions to these rainfall series and to evaluate the normality assumption of the Standardized Precipitation Index series calculated from several distributions. Based on the Lilliefors test and on a normality test, it is verified...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Rainfall departures; Normality test; Goodness-of-fit tests.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-43662015001201129
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Using multi-parameters distributions to assess the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall data AGRIAMBI
Blain,Gabriel C.; Meschiatti,Monica C..
Soil erosion, soil saturation and floods are frequently associated with extreme rainfall events. Thus, the scientific literature agrees on the need to carry out studies that improve the assessment of the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall values. The main goal of this study was to compare the performance of the multi-parameters distributions Wakeby, Kappa and Generalized Extreme Value in fitting the annual maximums of daily, 2-day and 3-day rainfall amounts obtained from the weather station of Campinas, located in the State of São Paulo, Brazil (1890-2012). As a secondary aim, the presence of climate trends and serial correlation in these series was also evaluated. The auto-correlation function and the Mann-Kendall tests have shown the presence...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Wakeby; Kappa; Climate trend.
Ano: 2014 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-43662014000300010
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