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	Provedor de dados AgEcon (1) Autor Keller, Klaus (1) Miltich, Louise I. (1) Robinson, Alexander (1) Tol, Richard S.J. (1) Palavra-chave Carbon Dioxide (1) Data Assimilation (1) Emissions (1) Environmental Economics and Policy (1) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (1) Q540 (1) Scenarios (1) Mais... Tipo do documento Working or Discussion Paper (1) Ano 2007 (1) País United States (1) Idioma Inglês (1)		Ordenar por:  Relevância Autor Título Ano Registros recuperados: 1 Primeira ... 1 ... Última How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions? AgEcon Keller, Klaus; Miltich, Louise I.; Robinson, Alexander; Tol, Richard S.J.. Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range... Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Carbon Dioxide; Emissions; Scenarios; Data Assimilation; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q540. Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9321 Registros recuperados: 1 Primeira ... 1 ... Última

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