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| Gaio, Luiz Eduardo; Castro Junior, Luiz Gonzaga de; Oliveira, Andre Ribeiro de. |
| This study analyzes the transmission elasticity and the price causality of beef, between BM&F and important places in Brazil, seeking data referring to the intensity of price transmission and detecting the existent relations between beef price in these places and in BM&F. Studies in several regions were realized, using daily price data in a period comprehended between 2000 and 2004. The studied cities were Araçatuba (SP), Barretos (SP), Bauru (SP), Presidente Prudente (SP), Noroeste do Paraná (PR), Três Lagoas (MS), Campo Grande (MS), Triângulo Mineiro (MG), Dourados (GO), Goiânia (GO) and Cuiabá (MT). The results of the Dickey-Fuller Augmented (DFA) unit root test show that all price series are integrated of first order, I(1). The results of the... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Beef market; Causality; Price transmission elasticity.; Livestock Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43924 |
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| Gaio, Luiz Eduardo; Castro Junior, Luiz Gonzaga de; Oliveira, Andre Ribeiro de. |
| Human forecasting capacity is still very limited. In spite of the extreme efforts of specialists in several different areas for years developing scientific knowledge, forecasting various events, such as climatic conditions at a given time, the evolution of a commodity price in the future, remain subject liable to a considerably high degree of error. Therefore, this paper aims to compare forecast price models for the Live Cattle market at Brazilian Mercantile and Future Exchange (BM&F) using models based in Neural Networks and statistical tools of heteroscedastic times series. The data used correspond to the closing of the live cattle prices, in the period ranging from August 1997 to May 2005, totalizing 1946 observations. The results show the supremacy... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Price forecast; Future market; Neural networks.. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43723 |
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