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| Miljkovic, Dragan; Paul, Rodney. |
| This study examines the causes of the countercyclicality of the trade balance in the three major sectors of the U.S. economy: services, manufacturing, and agriculture. These results are compared with the results pertinent to the U.S. economy as a whole. At the macroscopic level, Sachs’ hypothesis seems to explain the countercyclicality of the trade balance, while results are mixed across individual sectors. The services sector may be explained by Sachs’ hypothesis, while results for the manufacturing sector are more consistent with the real business cycle hypothesis. The results for the agricultural sector, however, cannot be explained by either hypothesis. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Decomposition of variance; Real business cycle; Trade balance; Agribusiness; International Relations/Trade; F4; E32. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47271 |
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| Miljkovic, Dragan; Paul, Rodney. |
| Trade creation in agricultural products is defined as a statistically significant positive break in the trend function of the growth in exports and imports between member countries. The present study attempts to determine the time of any break in the trend of real exports and imports between the Canada–USA Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) member countries for the years 1980:I through 1999:II, and document the scale of the phenomenon. The present study finds trade creation only occurs in USA agricultural exports to Canada because of CUSTA. The results confirm the theory that the regionalism of NAFTA did not lead to regionalisation or an increasing share of intraregional international trade. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116991 |
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