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| Howitt, Richard E.; Reynaud, Arnaud; Msangi, Siwa; Knapp, Keith C.. |
| In this paper we develop a positive calibrated approach to stochastic dynamic programming. Risk aversion, discount rate, and intertemporal substitution preferences of the decision-maker are calibrated by a procedure that minimizes the mean squared error from data on past decisions. We apply this framework to managing stochastic water supplies from Oroville Reservoir, located in Northern California. The calibrated positive SDP closely reproduces the historical storage and releases from the dam and shows sensitivity of optimal decisions to a decision-maker's risk aversion and intertemporal preferences. The calibrated model has average prediction errors that are substantially lower than those from the model with an expected net present value objective. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19620 |
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| Howitt, Richard E.; Reynaud, Arnaud. |
| In this paper we develop a dynamic data-consistent way for estimating agricultural land use choices at a disaggregate level (district-level), using more aggregate data (regional-level). The disaggregation procedure requires two steps. The first step consists in specifying and estimating a dynamic model of land use at the regional level. In the second step, we disaggregate outcomes of the aggregate model using maximum entropy (ME). The ME disaggregation procedure is applied to a sample of California data. The sample includes 6 districts located in Central Valley and 8 possible crops, namely: Alfalfa, Cotton, Field, Grain, Melons, Tomatoes, Vegetables and Subtropical. The disaggregation procedure enables the recovery of land use at the district-level with an... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Disaggregation; Bayesian method; Maximum entropy; Land use; Production Economics; C11; C44; Q12. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24961 |
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| Mosnier, Claire; Agabriel, Jacques; Lherm, Michel; Reynaud, Arnaud. |
| Currently France wants to introduce a weather risk management framework into its agricultural policy for livestock farming. The aim of this paper is to better understand how on-farm risk reducing strategies modify the production system and profit distribution of French suckler cow enterprises. We present in this paper an original bioeconomic model that takes into account both risk anticipation and risk adjustments and that details biotechnical relationships between the different components of the beef cattle production system and their dynamics. On-farm risk management strategies are endogeneized under weather uncertainty and tested on real observed weather sequences. We simulate four scenarios characterized by different risk aversions and feed prices.... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114645 |
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