SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Anderson, David P.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Feldman, Paul A.; Schumann, Keith D.; Klose, Steven L.; Schwart, Robert B., Jr.; Womack, Abner W..

The farm level economic impacts of projected long term prices under the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 (FAIR) on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. For this report the FAIR Act will be referred to as the 1996 Farm Bill. The analysis was conducted over the 2000-2006 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)...

SOIL CONSERVATION OR COMMODITY PROGRAMS: TRADE OFFS DURING THE TRANSITION TO DRYLAND CROP PRODUCTION

Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42720

Lee, John G.; Lacewell, Ronald D.; Richardson, James W..

Predicted crop yields and wind erosion rates from a multi-year/multi-crop growth simulation model provided input into a multi-period recursive QP model to evaluate erosion implications during the transition to dryland crop production on the Texas Southern High Plains. Three farm-program participation options were considered in this study. Participation in an extension of the current farm program resulted in an increase in net returns and wind erosion rates above nonparticipation. Imposition of a soil loss limit without consideration of a flexible base option can significantly reduce discounted present values. Increasing risk aversion across producers affects crop mix selection which can result in lower per acre wind erosion rates for this particular...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 1991

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30306

DISTRIBUTION CHOICE UNDER NULL PRIORS AND SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

Feldman, Paul A.; Richardson, James W.; Schumann, Keith D..

Defining appropriate probability distributions for the variables in an economic model is an important and often arduous task. This paper evaluates the performance of several common probability distributions under different distributional assumptions when sample sizes are small and there is limited information about the data.

Analysis of the Economic Viability for Representative Wheat Farms Given Alternative Farm Policies Proposed by the National Association of Wheat Growers

Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20012

Richardson, James W.; Raulston, J. Marc; Knapek, George M.; Outlaw, Joe L..

This report is a companion to FAPRI-UMC Report #09-06, which contains the sector level results of the wheat policy options requested by Senators Crapo and Baucus, and Representatives Musgrave and Pomeroy. The Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) has completed a farm level analysis of five alternative policy options on the economic viability of 13 representative wheat farms located across the United States. The results of the analysis are compared to a continuation of the current farm program over the 2006-2013 planning horizon, however, the policy alternatives are assumed to begin in 2008/09.

Analysis of Representative Rice Farms Under H.R. 2646 and the Continuation of the FAIR Act

Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42099

Houston, Christy M.; Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Smith, Edward G.; Womack, Abner W..

In anticipation of the new farm bill, seventeen representative rice farms from six different rice-producing states have been analyzed to compare the continuation of the FAIR Act provisions with the House proposal, H.R. 2646. Each farm was simulated assuming each policy would be in place for the next five-year period, or 2002-2006. A full description of each of the farms can be found in the Appendix.

THE 2002 FARM BILL: WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR WESTERN AGRICULTURE?

Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42724

AFPC Review of County Loan Rates for Sorghum and Corn

Richardson, James W..

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/27985

Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Knapek, George M.; Herbst, Brian K..

The Agricultural & Food Policy Center (AFPC) updated the comparison of corn and sorghum county loan rates following the general methodology outlined in the October 2002 Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) study on corn and sorghum loan rates. The study answers two questions: 1. Are the 2006 county loan rates established by USDA consistent with the Congressional mandate that national average loan rates for both commodities be $1.95 per bushel? 2. What would be the impact if USDA were to adopt a different weighting scheme in setting county loan rates while continuing to maintain the mandated national average loan rate? Specifically, what would be the impact on sorghum loan rates if each county’s loan rate were weighted by the county’s...

INVESTIGATION OF PRICE DISCOVERY AND EFFICIENCY FOR CASH AND FUTURES COTTON PRICES

Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42083

Brorsen, B. Wade; Bailey, DeeVon; Richardson, James W..

The dynamic relationship between daily cash and futures prices is investigated using time series analysis. The procedure involves causality tests between the two price series. The results show that futures price movements lead cash prices, implying that prices are discovered in the futures market.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing.

Ano: 1984

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32383

Preliminary Analysis of House of Representatives Draft Concept Paper for the 2002 Farm Bill

Richardson, James W.; Smith, Edward G.; Womack, Abner W..

Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the August 2006 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42769

Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Herbst, Brian K.; Knapek, George M.; Anderson, David P.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Raulston, J. Marc; Fumasi, Roland J.; Klose, Steven L.; Zimmel, Peter.

The Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University develops and maintains data to simulate 100 representative crop, dairy, and livestock operations in major production areas in 28 states. The chief purpose of this analysis is to project those farms’ economic viability by region and commodity for 2006 through 2011. The data necessary to simulate the economic activity of these operations is developed through ongoing cooperation with panels of agricultural producers in each of these states. The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) provided projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates in their August 2006 Baseline. Under the August 2006 Baseline, 14 of the 65 crop farms are considered in good...

Economic Outlook for Representative Ranches Given the August 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42101

Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Knapek, George M.; Fumasi, Roland J.; Raulston, J. Marc.

While projected cattle prices are considered to be the primary determinant of the financial viability of the representative ranches, the prices of feed crops and bi-products can also have an impact. The ranches produce hay and are often net buyers or net sellers. At least two of the ranches retain ownership through the backgrounding stage and feed some concentrates. The smaller Missouri ranch produces a number of grain and oilseed crops, and the smaller Texas ranch also raises broilers. Additionally, crop prices have an impact on fed cattle returns, which impacts feeder cattle prices. Projected livestock prices for FAPRI’s August 2007 Baseline are presented in Table 1. In general, beef cattle prices are projected to decline each year from 2008 though 2012,...

PREDICTING THE DIFFUSION OF HYBRIDS AND VARIETIES IN TEXAS

Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37979

Gambrell, Stefphanie M.; Richardson, James W.; Anderson, David P..

This paper examines the diffusion of specific rice varieties, as opposed to variety classes in the previous literature. Using simulation techniques to incorporate risk into the diffusion path, new variety product life cycle diffusion is projected with implications for breeders, researchers, and private companies.

Financial Impacts of Regional Differences in Dairies

Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20299

Outlaw, Joe L.; Herbst, Brian K.; Richardson, James W.; Anderson, David P..

The sensitivity of net cash farm income to changes in selected production variables, output prices, and input costs varies significantly across representative U.S. dairies. Different regions of the country were impacted differently by changes to production and prices.

Simulating Multivariate Distributions with Sparse Data: A Kernal Density Smoothing Procedure

Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Q12; Q14.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34937

Lien, Gudbrand D.; Hardaker, J. Brian; Richardson, James W..

Often analysts must conduct risk analysis based on a small number of observations. This paper describes and illustrates the use of a kernel density estimation procedure to smooth out irregularities in such a sparse data set for simulating univariate and multivariate probability distributions.

Economic Outlook for the Texas Representative Cotton Farms Given the August 2005 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

Palavras-chave: Stochastic simulation; Smoothing; Multivariate kernel estimator; Parzen; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Q12; C8.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25449

Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Raulston, J. Marc; Knapek, George M.; Feldman, Paul A..

The Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University develops and maintains data to simulate eleven representative cotton operations in major production areas across Texas. The chief purpose of this analysis is to project those farms’ economic viability for 2005 through 2009. The data necessary to simulate the economic activity of these operations is developed through ongoing cooperation with panels of agricultural producers throughout the state. The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) provided projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates in their August 2005 Baseline. Under the August 2005 Baseline, none of the Texas representative cotton farms are classified in good liquidity condition (less than...

AN APPLIED PROCEDURE FOR ESTIMATING AND SIMULATING MULTIVARIATE EMPIRICAL (MVE) PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN FARM-LEVEL RISK ASSESSMENT AND POLICY ANALYSIS

Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42107

Richardson, James W.; Klose, Steven L.; Gray, Allan W..

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2000

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15490

Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2004 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Anderson, David P.; Raulston, J. Marc; Herbst, Brian K.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Schwart, Robert B., Jr.; Schumann, Keith D.; Feldman, Paul A.; Klose, Steven L..

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2001-2008 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms, and - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) January 2004 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by farmers for prices...

ESTIMATING PRICE VARIABILITY IN AGRICULTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION MAKERS

Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42694

Ray, Daryll E.; Richardson, James W.; Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la; Tiller, Kelly.

Using a stochastic version of the POLYSYS modeling framework, an examination of projected variability in agricultural prices, supply, demand, stocks, and incomes is conducted for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton during the 1998-2006 period. Increased planting flexibility introduced in the 1996 farm bill results in projections of significantly higher planted acreage variability compared to recent historical levels. Variability of ending stocks and stock-to-use ratios is projected to be higher for corn and soybeans and lower for wheat and cotton compared to the 1986-96 period. Significantly higher variability is projected for corn prices, with wheat and soybean prices also being more variable. No significant change in cotton price variability is projected.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: POLYSYS model; Price variability; Stochastic simulation; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15100

A SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF A RESERVE STOCK MANAGEMENT POLICY FOR FEED GRAINS AND WHEAT

Ray, Daryll E.; Richardson, James W.; Collins, Glenn S..

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 1975

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29665

Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Knapek, George M.; Raulston, J. Marc; Herbst, Brian K.; Fumasi, Roland J.; Anderson, David P.; Klose, Steven L.; Zimmel, Peter.

Under the January 2007 Baseline, 20 of the 64 crop farms are considered in good liquidity condition (less than a 25 percent chance of negative ending cash in 2012). Five crop farms have between a 25 percent and a 50 percent likelihood of negative ending cash. The remaining 39 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent chance of negative ending cash. Additionally, 30 of the 64 crop farms are considered in good equity position (less than a 25 percent chance of decreasing real net worth during the study period). Nine crop farms have between a 25 percent and 50 percent likelihood of losing real net worth, and 25 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent probability of decreasing real net worth. The following discussion provides an overall evaluation by...