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From here and now to there and then : practical recommendations for extrapolating cetacean density surface models to novel conditions ArchiMer
Bouchet, Philippe; Miller, David Lawrence; Roberts, Jason; Mannocci, Laura; Harris, Catriona M.; Thomas, Len.
Density surface models (DSMs) are clearly established as a method of choice for the analysis of cetacean line transect survey data, and are increasingly used to inform risk assessments in remote marine areas subject to rising anthropogenic impacts (e.g. the high seas). However, despite persistent skepticism about the validity of extrapolated models, more and more DSMs are being applied well beyond the boundaries of the study regions where field sampling originally took place. This leads to potentially uncertain and error-prone model predictions that may mislead on-the-ground management interventions and undermine conservation decision-making. In addition, no consensus currently exists on the best way to define and measure extrapolation when it occurs,...
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Ano: 2019 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00515/62687/67073.pdf
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