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The adoption of innovative cropping systems under price and production risks: a dynamic model of crop rotation choice AgEcon
Ridier, Aude; Chaib, Karim; Roussy, Caroline.
In the paper we investigate the role played by both production and market risks on farmer’s decision to adopt long rotations (over 2 years), considered as innovative cropping systems. We build a multiperiod dynamic farm model (run under GAMS) that arbitrates each year between traditional and innovative rotations. With discrete stochastic programming, the production risk is accounted as an intra-year risk; yearly farming operations are declined according to a decision tree where probabilities are assigned. Subjective yield and cost distributions linked to this decision tree are elicited among a sample of 13 farmers that are experiencing this innovation in South-western France. The price risk is randomly distributed with a given market trend. The crop...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Innovative cropping systems; Dynamic model; Crop rotation decision; Risk; Subjective probabilities; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; D0; Q12; Q55.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122440
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