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| Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Cheung, William; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea; Buechner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Huber, Veronika; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda; Lehodey, Patrick; Link, Jason S.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-jai; Silva, Tiago; Stock, Charles A.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Underwood, Philip J.; Volkholz, Jan; Watson, James R.; Walker, Nicola D.. |
| Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0... |
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| Ano: 2018 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00438/54988/75118.pdf |
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| Keller, Kathrin M.; Joos, Fortunat; Raible, Christoph C.; Cocco, Valentina; Froelicher, Thomas L.; Dunne, John P.; Gehlen, Marion; Bopp, Laurent; Orr, James C.; Tjiputra, Jerry; Heinze, Christoph; Segschneider, Joachim; Roy, Tilla; Metzl, Nicolas. |
| Climate modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), representing internal variability of the climate system, influence the ocean carbon cycle and may mask trends in the sink of anthropogenic carbon. Here, utilising control runs of six fully coupled Earth System Models, the response of the ocean carbon cycle to the NAO is quantified. The dominating response, a seesaw pattern between the subtropical gyre and the subpolar Northern Atlantic, is instantaneous (<3 months) and dynamically consistent over all models and with observations for a range of physical and biogeochemical variables. All models show asymmetric responses to NAO+ and NAO− forcing, implying non-linearity in the connection between NAO and the ocean carbon cycle. However, model... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: North Atlantic Oscillation; Carbon cycle; Ocean biogeochemistry; Climate modeling; Ocean-atmosphere interaction. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00140/25166/23272.pdf |
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| Tjiputra, Jerry F.; Olsen, Are; Bopp, Laurent; Lenton, Andrew; Pfeil, Benjamin; Roy, Tilla; Segschneider, Joachim; Totterdell, Ian; Heinze, Christoph. |
| We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO(2) growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO(2) growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 uptake, while ocean pCO(2) growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 uptake. Aside from the western subpolar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Surface pCO(2); Ocean CO2 sinks; Earth system models; CMIP5 projections; Ocean biogeochemistry. |
| Ano: 2014 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00291/40228/38691.pdf |
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| Lotze, Heike K.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea; Eddy, Tyler D.; Cheung, William W. L.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Barange, Manuel; Barrier, Nicolas; Bianchi, Daniele; Blanchard, Julia L; Bopp, Laurent; Buchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine M.; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda C.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Fernandes, Jose A.; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-jai; Silva, Tiago A. M.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Stock, Charles A.; Verley, Philippe; Volkholz, Jan; Walker, Nicola D.; Worm, Boris. |
| While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (+/- 4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (+/- 11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 degrees C of warming. Projected biomass... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate change impacts; Marine food webs; Global ecosystem modeling; Model intercomparison; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00659/77125/78507.pdf |
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