| Recently Granich et al. at the World Health Organization (WHO) concluded, using mathematical modeling, that HIV epidemics could be eliminated within a decade. They assumed all individuals would be tested annually and every infected individual (regardless of stage of infection) would be put on treatment. Based on this modeling study the WHO is considering using universal testing and treatment as an HIV elimination strategy. Here we examine the study by Granich et al. and assess its validity. We present new analyses of their model by varying assumptions and parameter values. We find that under certain very optimistic assumptions HIV elimination would be (theoretically) possible, but it would take at least 70 years. To obtain this result we assumed ~65% of... |
