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| Shrestha, Shailesh; Himics, Mihaly; Van Doorslaer, Benjamin; Ciaian, Pavel. |
| The current paper investigates the medium term impact of climate changes on EU agriculture. We employ CAPRI partial equilibrium modelling framework. The results indicate that within the EU, there will be both winners and losers, with some regions benefitting from climate change, while other regions suffering losses in production and welfare. In general, there are relatively small market effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of total agricultural income, land use and welfare change by approximately between -0.3% and 2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with the effects increase by a factor higher than 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Regional impacts; CAPRI; Market effects; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122546 |
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| Shrestha, Shailesh; Hennessy, Thia C.. |
| This paper describes a methodology to assess the impact of the decoupling of payments on Irish farms at a regional level. The methodology is based on a farm level dynamic linear programming model which optimises regional gross margin under a set of constraints. Regionally representative farms are selected using cluster analysis. The model maximises aggregate gross margins from all the farm types in a region allowing land and milk quota to transfer between farms within the region. The model is estimated for a baseline scenario, assuming no policy change, and under a decoupled scenario where farm payments are fully decoupled from production. An example of an impact study at the Border region in Ireland is presented in this paper to demonstrate the methodology. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Decoupling; Linear Programming; Cluster analysis; Agricultural policy; Regional level; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25458 |
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| Himics, Mihaly; Van Doorslaer, Benjamin; Ciaian, Pavel; Shrestha, Shailesh. |
| In this paper the impact of possible input cost developments on the EU agriculture is analysed under ceteris paribus conditions. Two scenarios are developed with the partial equilibrium model CAPRI. The scenarios assume symmetric input price changes in positive and negative directions around a projected baseline in year 2020. The magnitude of the input price changes are based on observed volatility. To measure the volatility, the annual time-series of the CoCo database were analysed, which contains input cost estimates for a multitude of agricultural activities and cost categories at the geographical level of the EU countries. Our results suggest that the uncertainty in input cost development has a strong potential to affect commodity market balances and... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Input costs; Volatility; CAPRI; Farm income; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122531 |
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| Hennessy, Thia C.; Shrestha, Shailesh. |
| In the wake of policy reforms such as the MTR of the CAP and WTO arrangements, many policy analysts are questioning the value of retaining the EU milk quota system in its current form and one policy reform option that has been discussed in advance of the 2008 Health Check of the CAP is the international transfer of quota rights between member states. A methodology for simulating a free market for milk quota is outlined in this paper with a view to extending the work to other member states to determine which member states would supply and demand milk quota if an international market for quotas was established. The analysis, conducted for Ireland, uses National Farm Survey data from 491 dairy farms to estimate the aggregate demand for and supply of milk... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7982 |
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