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| Lotze, Heike K.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea; Eddy, Tyler D.; Cheung, William W. L.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Barange, Manuel; Barrier, Nicolas; Bianchi, Daniele; Blanchard, Julia L; Bopp, Laurent; Buchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine M.; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda C.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Fernandes, Jose A.; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-jai; Silva, Tiago A. M.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Stock, Charles A.; Verley, Philippe; Volkholz, Jan; Walker, Nicola D.; Worm, Boris. |
| While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (+/- 4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (+/- 11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 degrees C of warming. Projected biomass... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate change impacts; Marine food webs; Global ecosystem modeling; Model intercomparison; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00659/77125/78507.pdf |
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| Piroddi, Chiara; Coll, Marta; Liquete, Camino; Macias, Diego; Greer, Krista; Buszowski, Joe; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Danovaro, Roberto; Christensen, Villy. |
| The Mediterranean Sea has been defined "under siege" because of intense pressures from multiple human activities; yet there is still insufficient information on the cumulative impact of these stressors on the ecosystem and its resources. We evaluate how the historical (1950-2011) trends of various ecosystems groups/species have been impacted by changes in primary productivity (PP) combined with fishing pressure. We investigate the whole Mediterranean Sea using a food web modelling approach. Results indicate that both changes in PP and fishing pressure played an important role in driving species dynamics. Yet, PP was the strongest driver upon the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem. This highlights the importance of bottom-up processes in controlling the biological... |
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| Ano: 2017 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00625/73723/74900.pdf |
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| Heymans, Johanna Jacomina; Coll, Marta; Link, Jason S.; Mackinson, Steven; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Walters, Carl; Christensen, Villy. |
| Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) models are easier to construct and use compared to most other ecosystem modelling techniques and are therefore more widely used by more scientists and managers. This, however, creates a problem with quality assurance; to address this we provide an overview of best practices for creating Ecopath, models. We describe the diagnostics that can be used to check for thermodynamic and ecological principles, and highlight principles that should be used for balancing a model. We then highlight the pitfalls when comparing Ecopath models using Ecological Network Analysis indices. For dynamic simulations in Ecosim we show the state of the art in calibrating the model by fitting it to time series using a formal fitting procedure and... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Ecopath with Ecosim; Ecological network analysis; Ecosystem modelling; Ecosystem-based management; Monte Carlo; Time series fitting. |
| Ano: 2016 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00626/73763/74237.pdf |
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| Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Cheung, William; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea; Buechner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Huber, Veronika; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda; Lehodey, Patrick; Link, Jason S.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-jai; Silva, Tiago; Stock, Charles A.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Underwood, Philip J.; Volkholz, Jan; Watson, James R.; Walker, Nicola D.. |
| Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0... |
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| Ano: 2018 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00438/54988/75118.pdf |
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| Piroddi, Chiara; Akoglu, Ekin; Andonegi, Eider; Bentley, Jacob W.; Celić, Igor; Coll, Marta; Dimarchopoulou, Donna; Friedland, René; De Mutsert, Kim; Girardin, Raphael; Garcia-gorriz, Elisa; Grizzetti, Bruna; Hernvann, P.-y.; Heymans, Johanna J.; Müller-karulis, Bärbel; Libralato, Simone; Lynam, Christopher P.; Macias, Diego; Miladinova, Svetla; Moullec, Fabien; Palialexis, Andreas; Parn, Ove; Serpetti, Natalia; Solidoro, Cosimo; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Stips, Adolf; Tomczak, Maciej T.; Travers-trolet, Morgane; Tsikliras, Athanassios C.. |
| Eutrophication is one of the most important anthropogenic pressures impacting coastal seas. In Europe, several legislations and management measures have been implemented to halt nutrient overloading in marine ecosystems. This study evaluates the impact of freshwater nutrient control measures on higher trophic levels (HTL) in European marine ecosystems following descriptors and criteria as defined by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). We used a novel pan-European marine modeling ensemble of fourteen HTL models, covering almost all the EU seas, under two nutrient management scenarios. Results from our projections suggest that the proposed nutrient reduction measures may not have a significant impact on the structure and function of European... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Ecological modeling; Hydrological modeling; Hydrodynamic and biogeochemical modeling; Higher trophic level modeling; Ecological indicators; Criteria; Policy support. |
| Ano: 2021 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00685/79746/82520.pdf |
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| Heymans, Johanna J.; Bundy, Alida; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; De Mutsert, Kim; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Piroddi, Chiara; Shin, Yunne-jai; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Travers-trolet, Morgane. |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Ocean Decade; Ecosystem modeling; Climate change; Ecosystem based management (EBM); Sustainable development goals (SDG). |
| Ano: 2020 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00652/76379/77386.pdf |
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