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| Auffhammer, Maximilian; Steinhauser, Ralf. |
| This paper provides comparisons of a a variety of time series methods for short run forecasts of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, for the United States, using a recently released state level data set from 1960-2001. We test the out-of-sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state level forecasts versus forecasting the aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically improves forecasting performance under Root Mean Squared Forecast Error Loss. Based on the in-sample observations we attempt to explain the emergence of voluntary efforts by states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We find evidence that states with decreasing per... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7157 |
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| Aisbett, Emma; Steinhauser, Ralf. |
| Demand management has been of interest in dry climates such as Australia, Spain and the Western United States for decades. It is particularly important to understand policy options during drought conditions, as drought periods have a disproportionate effect on supply infrastructure decisions. While water‐conservation campaigns aimed at inducing voluntary consumption reductions are almost universally employed by water managers in times of supply constraint, voluntary measures are generally dismissed in the economics literature as ineffective. We argue that the robust positive correlation between dam levels and consumption after controlling for policy changes suggests that there is a significant component of voluntary conservation. Furthermore, omitting dam... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Water use; Demand management; Pricing; Behavioral aspects; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Environmental Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/107850 |
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