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Registros recuperados: 38
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Estimation and Analysis of Rational Expectations Model of International Cotton Market AgEcon
Tokovenko, Oleksiy; Gunter, Lewell F.; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
The paper outlines an approach to estimation and analysis of rational expectations international cotton market. A multiple model bootstrap filter is used to compute unobserved market expectations and their distributions. Estimation results are used to analyze the welfare effects of exogenous trade shocks and government programs, with application to the national market security.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Marketing.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9760
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Application of Weather Derivatives in Multi-Period Risk Management AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Sanchez, Leonardo.
This work is a first attempt to analyze the effect of weather derivative availability on the risk management strategies in a multi-period setting, when crop activities take place twice a year. Rice production in Ecuador is used as a case study. Numerical solutions show farmers improve their well-being by reducing their risk exposure.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Weather Derivatives; Risk Management; Multi-Period.; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; Q14.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103740
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Analysis of Production Efficiency of Mexican Coffee-Producing Districts AgEcon
Cardenas, Gabriela; Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Houston, Jack E..
Despite the decline of coffee prices during the 1990s, coffee production remains a main economic activity for producers in Southeastern Mexico. This paper analyzes the coffee production system for 24 municipios, or districts, in Veracruz, Mexico during a five-year cropping period (1997-–2002). A stochastic frontier approach is used in order to estimate an input distance function and evaluate production efficiency during the period. Factors such as coffee quality and access to markets are tested in terms of their effect on efficiency. The results show the production process in these municipios, as measured by technical efficiency, seems to be stable over time despite of price fluctuations in the global market. Production of staple crops (corn) along with...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19470
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Multi-Period Asset Allocation: An Application of Discrete Stochastic Programming AgEcon
Larsen, Ryan A.; Leatham, David J.; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
The issue of modeling farm financial decisions in a dynamic framework is addressed in this paper. Discrete stochastic programming is used to model the farm portfolio over the planning period. One of the main issues of discrete stochastic programming is representing the uncertainty of the data. The development of financial scenario generation routines provides a method to model the stochastic nature of the model. In this paper, two approaches are presented for generating scenarios for a farm portfolio problem. The approaches are based on copulas and optimization. The copula method provides an alternative to the multivariate normal assumption. The optimization method generates a number of discrete outcomes which satisfy specified statistical properties by...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61509
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Can the U.S. Ethanol Industry Compete in the Alternative Fuels' Market? AgEcon
Zhang, Zibin; Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Wetzstein, Michael E..
The U.S. ethanol fuel industry has experienced preferential treatment from federal and state governments ever since the Energy Tax Act of 1978 exempted 10% ethanol/gasoline blend (gasohol) from the federal excise tax. Combined with a 54¢/gal ethanol import tariff, this exemption was designed to provide incentives for the establishment and development of a U.S. ethanol industry. Despite these tax exemptions, until recently, the U.S. ethanol fuel industry was unable to expand from a limited regional market. Ethanol was dominated in the market by MTBE (methyl-tertiary-butyl ether). Only after MTBE was found to contaminate groundwater and consequently banned in many states did the demand for ethanol expand nationally. Limit pricing on the part of MTBE...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34867
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The Effect of Climate Change on Transportation Flows and Inland Waterways Due to Climate-Induced Shifts in Crop Production Patterns AgEcon
Attavanich, Witsanu; McCarl, Bruce A.; Fuller, Stephen W.; Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Ahmedov, Zafarbek.
This study was funded by the the University Transportation Center for Mobility, Texas Transportation Institute
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Grain Transportation; Climate change and agriculture; Climate change and transportation; Land use change; Supply of grain; Demand for grain; Crop production patterns; Inland waterways; Mississippi River Basin; Climate change adaptation; Welfare distribution; Corn transportation; Soybeans transportation; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; Land Economics/Use; C61; L91; L92; Q15; Q17; Q54; R14; R41; R13.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109241
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Efficient Estimation of Copula Mixture Model: An Application to the Rating of Crop Revenue Insurance AgEcon
Ghosh, Somali; Woodard, Joshua D.; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
The association between prices and yields are of paramount importance to the crop insurance programs. Proper estimation of the association is highly desirable. Copulas are one such method to measure the dependence structure. Five single parametric copulas, a non- parametric copula and their fifteen different combinations taking a mixture of two different copulas at a time have been used in the crop insurance rating analysis. Using data of corn from 1973-2009 for 602 counties in the Mid-West area two different efficient methods have been proposed to generate the optimal mixtures using the cross validation approach. A resampling technique is used to check for the significance of the expected indemnities.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Copulas; Crop Insurance; Cross-Validation; Empirical distribution; GRIP; Indemnities; Out-Of-Sample Log-Likelihood; Agricultural Finance; Q14.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103738
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ESTIMATING RETURNS UNDER STANDARD REINSURANCE AGREEMENT AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V..
The present paper describes the assumptions and modeling structure behind the SRA simulator, a user-friendly computer program developed in cooperation with RMA as a tool to assist policymakers in assessing the economic impact of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement. The simulator uses the historical data on yields, prices, and insurance losses for each district, crop, and insurance product in order to simulate a distribution of the book of business resulting from underwriting crop insurance either in aggregate or for a specific company.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Farm Management.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19720
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RAINFALL INSURANCE FOR MIDWEST CROP PRODUCTION AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Miranda, Mario J..
The paper discusses a methodology for design and pricing of index insurance contracts for crop production. The methodology heavily relies on establishing a relationship between the index and yields in order to evaluate the contract performance in hedging farmers' risk. However, analysis of yield/rainfall data series for Iowa corn and Kansas wheat fail to produce a reliable and meaningful relationship which can be used uniformly across several counties and/or crop producing districts. Further research is needed as to applicability of rainfall insurance to specific crop/region combinations.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20458
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Portfolio Allocation and Alternative Structures of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Miranda, Mario J.; Dismukes, Robert; Glauber, Joseph W..
This paper examines how insurance companies participating in delivery of crop insurance would change patterns of portfolio allocation across reinsurance funds in reaction to the 2005 Standard Reinsurance Agreement. The returns of insurance companies under the SRA are calculated using a simulation model. An heuristic allocation rule is introduced in order to imitate portfolio allocation strategies of participating companies. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the bulk of changes in portfolio allocations are likely to be caused by the introduction of "retained net book quota share" reinsurance rather than adjustments in the cession limits and retention requirements for the Assigned Risk Fund.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Portfolio allocation strategies; Reinsurance funds; Standard Reinsurance Agreement; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10145
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Applications of copulas to Analysis of Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as Primary Crop Insurance Instruments AgEcon
Filonov, Vitaly; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103972
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The Price Shock Transmission during the 2007-2008 Commodity Bull Cycle: A Structural Vector Auto-Regression Approach to the "Chicken-or-Egg" Problem AgEcon
Power, Gabriel J.; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
Commodity and energy prices have exhibited an unprecedented increase between October 2006 and July 2008, only to fall sharply during the last months of 2008. Many explanations have been offered to this phenomenon, including steadily increasing demand from China and India, large mandated increases in ethanol production, droughts in some key agricultural producer countries, production plateaus in some major oil-producing countries, refinery capacity limits, demand pressure from the derivatives market owing to the diversification properties of commodities, etc. Clearly, agricultural input, output, and energy products are closely related economically. In addition to biofuels, the connection points include nitrogen-based solution liquid fertilizers, fossil...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Commodity prices; Commodity bull cycle; Energy prices; Granger-causality; Graph theory; Structural VAR.; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49538
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Do Elevators Need a Bigger Umbrella? The Economic Value to Agribusiness Firms of Improved Multi-Commodity Risk Management AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Power, Gabriel J..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agribusiness.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62006
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Production Efficiency and Diversification in Mexican Coffee-Producing Districts AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Houston, Jack E.; Cardenas, Gabriela.
Coffee production system is analyzed for 24 municipios (districts) in Veracruz, Mexico, from 1997 to 2002. A stochastic frontier approach is used to estimate an input distance function and to evaluate production efficiency. Results show the production process to be stable over time despite global price fluctuations. Production of staple crop (corn) with either coffee or other cash crops results in increased efficiency as a result of the economies of complementarity, while production of coffee with other cash crops leads to lower efficiency. Factors contributing to higher efficiency included higher population density, road availability, and higher altitude, typically associated with production of higher-quality coffee.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Coffee production; Distance function; Mexico; Production systems; Stochastic frontier; Technical efficiency; L25; L79; O13; Q12.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37063
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Designing Rainfall Insurance Contracts for Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage AgEcon
Nadolnyak, Denis A.; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
In the paper, preliminary results of the analysis of potential use of climate forecast information in designing rainfall index insurance in the southeastern region of the U.S. are reported. Joint distributions of bi-monthly rainfall and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indexes are estimated using copula analysis of historical data. The risk reducing effectiveness of introducing premiums conditional on ENSO forecast is evaluated. The results indicate some dependence of the downward volatility of rainfall on the lagged ENSO (forecast) index, particularly in the coastal areas and in the late winter and spring.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Rainfall index insurance; ENSO; Copulas; Agricultural Finance; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56511
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Economic Analysis of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Miranda, Mario J.; Dismukes, Robert; Glauber, Joseph W..
The paper presents an economic analysis of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement (SRA), the contract that governs the relationship between the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation and the private insurance companies that deliver crop insurance products to farmers. The paper outlines provisions of the SRA and describes the modeling methodology behind the SRA simulator, a computer program developed to assist crop insurers and policymakers in assessing the economic impact of the Agreement. The simulator is then used to analyze how the SRA affects returns from underwriting crop insurance at various levels of aggregation.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20345
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A Spatial Equilibrium Model of the Impact of Bio-Fuels Energy Policy on Grain Transportation Flows AgEcon
Ahmedov, Zafarbek; Power, Gabriel J.; Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Fuller, Stephen W.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Vadali, Sharada.
Traffic flows in the U.S. have been affected by the substantial increase and, as of January 2009, decrease in biofuel production and use. This paper considers a framework to study the effect on grain transportation flows of the 2005 Energy Act and subsequent legislation, which mandated higher production levels of biofuels, e.g. ethanol and biodiesels. Future research will incorporate changes due to the recent economic slowdown.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Biodiesel; Spatial equilibrium; Quadratic programming; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49837
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The Value of Long-Term Climate Forecast Information in Weather Index Insurance AgEcon
Nadolnyak, Denis A.; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
In the paper, preliminary results of the analysis of potential use of climate forecast information in designing rainfall index insurance in the southeastern region of the U.S. are reported. Joint distributions of bi-monthly rainfall and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indexes are estimated using copula analysis of historical data. The risk reducing effectiveness of introducing premiums conditional on ENSO forecast is evaluated. The results indicate some dependence of the downward volatility of rainfall on the lagged ENSO (forecast) index, particularly in the coastal areas and in the late winter and spring.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Q14; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61755
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The Shape of the Optimal Hedge Ratio: Modeling Joint Spot-Futures Prices using an Empirical Copula-GARCH Model AgEcon
Power, Gabriel J.; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
Commodity cash and futures prices have been rising steadily since 2006. As evidenced by the April 2008 Commodity Futures Trading Commission Agricultural Forum, there is much concern among traditional futures and options market participants that the usefulness of commodity derivatives has been compromised. When basis risk is particularly high, dynamic hedging methods may be helpful despite their complexity and higher transaction costs. To assess the potential benefits of dynamic hedging in volatile times, this paper proposes a novel, empirical copula-based method to estimate GARCH models and to compute time-varying hedge ratios. This approach allows a nonlinear, asymmetric dependence structure between cash and futures prices. The paper addresses four...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37609
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Application of Copulas to Analysis of Index Insurance Contracts (PowerPoint Presentation) AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9379
Registros recuperados: 38
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