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Are The Poverty Effects of Trade Policies Invisible? AgEcon
Verma, Monika; Valenzuela, Ernesto; Hertel, Thomas W..
With the advent of the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda, as well as the Millennium Development Goals aiming to reduce poverty by 50 percent by 2015, poverty impacts of trade reforms have attracted increasing attention. This has been particularly true of agricultural trade reform due to the importance of food in the diets of the poor, relatively higher protection in agriculture, as well as the heavy concentration of global poverty in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of income. Yet some in this debate have argued that, given the extreme volatility in agricultural commodity markets, the additional price and poverty impacts due to trade liberalization might well be undetectable. This paper formally tests this “invisibility hypothesis” via...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Trade policy reform; Agricultural trade; Computable general equilibrium; Developing countries; Poverty headcount; Volatility; Stochastic simulation; Non-parametric hypothesis testing; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C68; F17; I32; Q17; R20.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61793
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Commodity Price Volatility and Nutrition Vulnerability AgEcon
Verma, Monika; Hertel, Thomas W..
In this paper we examine the impact of commodity price volatility on nutritional attainment of households at the nutritional poverty line in Bangladesh. We focus on the first two moments of the distribution of nutrition and consider the differential impacts across socio-economic groups within the country. We also examine the direction and magnitude of the shift in these moments as a result of implementation of special safeguards measures aimed at preventing import surges.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Price volatility; Calories; Vulnerability; Food consumption; Poverty; Household data; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49344
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Global Nutrition Impacts of Rapid Economic Growth in China and India AgEcon
Hertel, Thomas W.; Verma, Monika; Bouet, Antoine; Cranfield, John A.L.; Preckel, Paul V..
Despite record global economic growth in past decade – malnutrition remains a serious problem in many parts of the world. According to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), about 800 million people (17% of the world’s population) remain malnourished. For these households at a subsistence level of income, changes in commodity market conditions, as may arise from changes in global economic growth and/or trade policy can have serious consequences for nutritional intake. Even a small decline in diet quality can have substantial adverse impacts on health status. On the other hand, a modest income boost, or lower food prices, could have extremely positive impacts. Previously, the links between changes in the global economy and nutritional...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9841
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Biophysical and Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Poverty Impacts of Climate Change AgEcon
Hertel, Thomas W.; Lobell, David; Verma, Monika.
This paper seeks to understand the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural output, international trade, and poverty. We incorporate biophysical uncertainty by sampling from a distribution of productivity shocks reflecting the impacts of climate on agricultural yields in 2030. These shocks, in turn, affect the global economy. The response of economic agents to climate change is the second source of uncertainty in our estimates. We find that, even though it is difficult to predict where in the world agricultural crops will be favorably affected by climate change, we find that the responses of output and exports can be far more robust. This is due to the fact that supply and demand decisions depend on relative...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate Change Uncertainty; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103691
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