|
|
|
|
|
| Yeldan, A. Erinc. |
| This paper attempts to assess the feasibility of the current strategy of manufactured export-led growth for Turkey over the Fifth and Sixth Five-Year Plan periods (1985-1994). The explicit hypothesis of the paper is that a domestic market, wage-goods oriented development strategy with agriculture leading the process will be more conducive to Turkey's long-term economic growth, as compared to an export-oriented strategy. The simulation experiments are conducted with the aid of a dynamic micro-planning model which belongs to a class of price-endogenous constructs known as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The model as applied to Turkey distinguishes seven economic sectors, four types of labor, three consumer groups, seven social classes, and a... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Development; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 1987 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7464 |
| |
|
| |
|
|
| Diao, Xinshen; Roe, Terry L.; Yeldan, A. Erinc. |
| We utilize a multi-sector general equilibrium model based on intertemporally optimizing agents to study issues of trade liberalization and fiscal adjustments in the context of the Turkish economy. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of the distortionary consequences of excessive borrowing requirements of the public sector through increased domestic interest costs. The model results suggest that the postponement of adjustment to growing public debt and fiscal imbalances could be detrimental; and that in the absence of coordinated fiscal reforms, the welfare gains expected from trade liberalization may significantly be negated. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7459 |
| |
|
|
| Roe, Terry L.; Yeldan, A. Erinc. |
| The paper develops a formal model of government's economic decisions as influenced by private agents within the context of neoclassical political economy. The government is assumed to form preferences over interest groups in the economy; in turn these preferences are influenced by the rent seeking behavior of these groups. An open, two-household, two-sector general equilibrium model is constructed to depict an environment in which preference-maximizing (rational) individuals allocate otherwise productive labor to directly unproductive rent seeking activities in order to exert political pressure on the government's choice of policy instruments. With the aid of five comparative-static experiments, the game-theoretic component and the second-best nature of... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Political Economy. |
| Ano: 1988 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7499 |
| |
|
|
| Yeldan, A. Erinc. |
| This paper investigates the role of the deterioration of the Turkish public sector balances in the latter half of the 1980's and the evolution of the economic crisis with the aid of a computable general equilibrium model. The theoretical basis of the model utilized in the paper rests upon the Walrasian and the Structuralist/Keynesian macro foundations. The model recognizes 15 production sectors, 3 socio-economic income groups and a central government; and simulates the production, income distribution, consumption, capital accumulation and foreign trade processes of the national economy within a simultaneous system of algebraic equations. The distinguishing feature of the model is that, it accommodates monopolistic mark-up pricing rules in the industrial... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Political Economy. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7460 |
| |
|
| |
|
|
| Adelman, Irma; Yeldan, A. Erinc. |
| The Asian financial crisis had a profound impact on the global economy. Growth is expected to be slower; risks are higher; and the international flows of capital have been dislocated. Above all, it has set out forces of new conditionality surrounding the developmental state, constraining its ability in designing an independent strategy of industrialization and foreign trade. With the aid of an inter-temporal, multi-region CGE model, we regard the crisis to be the result of a fundamental incompatibility between an independent financial policy with unregulated capital markets. We model the increased financial fragility surrounding the unregulated, short-term speculative capital flows as a sudden and unexpected rise in the domestic risk premium.... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Financial Economics; International Development. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25063 |
| |
|
|
| Diao, Xinshen; Elbasha, Elamin H.; Roe, Terry L.; Yeldan, A. Erinc. |
| An R&D based endogenous growth - applied general equilibrium model is developed from an underlying analytical model which combines Romer's capital variety with Grossman and Helpman's multi-sector open economy model. The transitional dynamics of the analytical model are derived. For numerical implementation, a time discrete empirical model, with an Armington structure, is fit to East Asian data of the social accounting matrix variety. Simulations of trade reform are performed and their static and dynamic effects compared. The transition paths of the state variables are found to have a half-life of five to six periods. A solution of the Social Planner's problem, and interventions which seek to obtain this outcome from the decentralized model are also... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Applied General Equilibrium; Trade; Growth; International Relations/Trade; F11; 031; 041. |
| Ano: 1996 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7461 |
| |
|
|
| Bayar, Ali; Diao, Xinshen; Yeldan, A. Erinc. |
| With the aid of an intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model, we study issues of agricultural trade liberalization, growth and capital accumulation in the context of a world economy moving towards a multi-polar structure. We specifically focus on Turkey, the European Union, the Middle East, and the Economies in Transition; and study alternative scenarios of formation of customs unions and increased trade orientation. The model is based on intertemporal general equilibrium theory with Ramsey-type dynamics. The world economy is fully endogenized within a 9-region specification, with Turkey, EU, Middle East and the Transition Economies constituting as one of the indigenous regions. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of both the... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16276 |
| |
|
|
|
