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| Zhang, Lichun; McErlean, Seamus; Patton, Myles. |
| This paper examines farmers’ decision making under risk and uncertainty. In particular, the study identifies the type of risk preference (averse, neutral or seeking) and measures the magnitude of risk preference before and after the introduction of the Single Farm Payment (SFP). The analysis therefore provides an insight into the impact of this fundamental policy change on farmer risk behaviour. Furthermore, it examines agricultural production decision making under price uncertainty. Empirically, it evaluates the impact of risk and uncertainty using Farm Business Survey (FBS) data of NI dairy farms. Using an econometric approach (maximize expected utility), a comprehensive methodology is employed that enables price uncertainty and risk preference under the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91802 |
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| Moss, Joan E.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Zhang, Lichun; Patton, Myles; Kim, In Seck. |
| Successive Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms and trade liberalisation have led to a more market-orientated European agricultural sector, with EU commodity prices now more closely linked to world prices. As a consequence EU prices have become more volatile. Greater price volatility increases uncertainty and raises fresh challenges for projections of policy impacts in the EU. To take account of world price volatility stochastic modelling has been applied to the FAPRI-EU partial equilibrium model, which includes a UK modelling system. Stochastic modelling provides a means to capture some of the inherent uncertainty associated with agricultural production systems. By varying assumptions about certain exogenous variables, stochastic models can be used to... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Stochastic modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108771 |
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| Patton, Myles; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Moss, Joan E.; Kostov, Philip; Zhang, Lichun; Davis, John; Westhoff, Patrick C.. |
| In recent years the CAP has undergone significant reforms, but the dairy sector has largely avoided wholesale changes. The sector, however, is now faced with a significant effort by the Commission to instigate reform. In this study the FAPRI-UK modelling system is simulated to identify the impact of abolishing or phasing out EU milk quotas on the dairy sector in the UK and the results are compared against a 2007 Baseline projection (2007--2016). The results demonstrate that although the impact of the abolition of dairy quotas is fairly modest at the EU-25 level, significant impacts are apparent at the individual country level. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Milk Quotas; CAP Reform; Commodity Modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6650 |
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