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| Heckelei, Thomas; Krebs, Elvira; Mollmann, Claus; von Lampe, Martin. |
| This paper presents a short comparative analysis of USDA and FAPRI projections for world wheat market prices until 2005. The relevance of different model assumptions regarding assumed inflation, exchange rates, policy parameters as well as shifts in demand and production development are discussed. A subsequent section focuses on the problem of a "world market price concept" for evaluating the potential of unsubsidized EU cereal exports. The Annex provides more detailed information on model assumptions and a comparison of other projected values, also including agricultural products other than wheat. Dieses Diskussionspapier stellt eine kurze vergleichende Analyse aktueller USDA- und FAPRI- Projektionen von Weltmarktpreisen fur Weizen bis 2005 vor. Die... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18778 |
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| von Lampe, Martin. |
| This paper presents a general overview on the World Agricultural Trade Simulation System WATSIM, the international trade modelling system of the Institute for Agricultural Policy at Bonn University. The system consists of two submodels, dealing with two major aspects of agricultural world markets: In the medium term the impacts of changes in agricultural policies on regional and international markets are of major interest and hence are stressed in the Medium-Term Policy Simulation Model. Developments in natural and socioeconomic variables become even more important for supply and demand of agricultural products in the longer run, depicted in the Long-Term Shift Factor Simulation Model. Before presenting the features of the two sub-models, the main... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18788 |
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| von Lampe, Martin. |
| This paper describes the use of income elasticities for long-term simulations of agricultural world markets, where the parameters are stemming from literature. It discusses the problem of assuming constant elasticities over time. This leads to a formulation where the income elasticities are estimated as a function of income in a cross sectional analysis. Thereby, the reflection of adjustments of consumption patterns due to growing wealth particularly in the rapidly developing Asian economies is improved. The demand for poultry in China is presented as an example, because it showed particularly strong increases in the past. Dieses Diskussionspapier beschreibt die Verwendung von aus der Literatur stammenden Einkommenselastizitaten fur langfristige... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18780 |
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