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Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests Ecology and Society
Guzy, Michael R; Oregon State University, Department of Biological and Ecological Engineering; michael.guzy@oregonstate.edu; Smith, Courtland L; Oregon State University, Department of Anthropology; csmith@oregonstate.edu; Bolte, John P; Oregon State University, Department of Biological and Ecological Engineering; boltej@engr.orst.edu; Hulse, David W; University of Oregon, Department of Landscape Architecture; dhulse@uoregon.edu; Gregory, Stanley V; Oregon State University, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife; stanley.gregory@oregonstate.edu.
The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Social-ecological systems; Agricultural-urban interface; Fish habitat; Ecosystem health; Urban containment policies; Agent-based models.
Ano: 2008
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