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Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture AgEcon
Baek, Jungho; Koo, Won W.; Mulik, Kranti.
This study examines the dynamic effects of changes in exchange rates on bilateral trade of agricultural products between the United States and its 15 major trading partners. Special attention is paid to investigate whether or not the J-curve hypothesis holds for U.S. agricultural trade. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied to quarterly time-series data from 1989 and 2007. Results show that the exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining the short- and long-run behavior of U.S. agricultural trade. However, we find little evidence of the J-curve phenomenon for U.S. agricultural products with the United States’ major trading partners.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration; Bilateral trade; J-curve effect; International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55546
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How Sensitive is U.S. Agricultural Trade to the Bilateral Exchange Rate?: Evidence from Bulk and Consumer-oriented Products AgEcon
Baek, Jungho; Koo, Won W..
This paper examines the dynamic effects of changes in the bilateral exchange rate on changes in the bilateral trade of bulk and consumer-oriented agricultural products between the U.S. and its 10 major trading partners. We find that, for consumer-oriented products, U.S. exports are highly sensitive to the bilateral exchange rate and foreign income in both the short- and long-run, while U.S. imports are mostly responsive to the U.S. domestic income. For bulk products, on the other hand, U.S. exports and imports are driven largely by the income of the U.S. and its trading partners and less by exchange rate changes in both the short- and long-run.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural exports; Agricultural imports; Autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration; Bulk; Consumer-oriented; Exchange rate; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60929
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