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The Potential Economic Impact of Avian Flu Pandemic on Taiwan AgEcon
Chang, Ching-Cheng; Lee, Duu-Hwa; Lin, Hsin-Chun; Hsu, Shih-Shun.
This study analyzes the potential consequences of an outbreak of avian influenza (H5N1) on Taiwan¡¦s macro economy and individual industries. Both the Input-Output (IO) Analysis Model and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model are used to simulate the possible damage brought by lowering domestic consumption, export, and labor supply. The simulation results indicates that if the disease is confined within the poultry sector, then the impact on real GDP is around -0.1%~-0.4%. Once it becomes a human-to-human pandemic, the IO analysis suggests that the potential impacts on real GDP would be as much as -4.2%~-5.9% while labor demand would decrease 4.9%~6.4%. In the CGE analysis, which allows for resource mobility and substitutions through price...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Avian Flu Pandemic; Input-output Model; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9803
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