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Selection and validation of a complex fishery model using an uncertainty hierarchy ArchiMer
Lehuta, Sigrid; Petitgas, Pierre; Mahevas, Stephanie; Huret, Martin; Vermard, Youen; Uriarte, Andres; Record, Nicholas R..
Assessing the validity of a model is essential for its credibility especially when the model is used as decision making tool. Complex dynamic fishery models are recommended to investigate the functioning of fisheries and to assess the impact of management strategies, particularly spatial fishing regulations. However, their use is limited due to the difficulty and computational cost of parameterizing and gaining confidence, particularly for parameter rich models. These difficulties are compounded by uncertainty regarding parameter values, many of which are often taken from literature or estimated indirectly. Here we propose a methodology to improve confidence and understanding in the model, easily transferable to any complex model. The approach combines...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Bay of Biscay anchovy; Dynamic fishery model; Model selection; Uncertainty; Validation.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00148/25965/24150.pdf
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Quantile regression models for fish recruitment environment relationships: four case studies ArchiMer
Planque, Benjamin; Buffaz, Laure.
Understanding and modelling the environmental control of fish recruitment has been a 14 central question in fish population ecology for the last century. Most environment -recruitment models have primarily been developed to model mean recruitment using conventional regression techniques which assume that all environmental parameters are included and that the residual unexplained variability is unstructured. However, the complexity of environmental controls and the empirical evidence that many relationships have failed when retested suggest that these assumptions are generally not met. Most environmental controls may be considered as limiting factors to recruitment and act in interaction with other factors (often not measured or not known). We used quantile...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Autocorrelated time series; Pacific sardine; Bay of Biscay anchovy; Atlanto scandian herring; Northeast Arctic cod; Quantile regression models; Environment recruitment.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2008/publication-3985.pdf
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Combining sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to evaluate the impact of management measures with ISIS-Fish: marine protected areas for the Bay of Biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) fishery ArchiMer
Lehuta, Sigrid; Mahevas, Stephanie; Petitgas, Pierre; Pelletier, Dominique.
Spatio-seasonal explicit simulation models can predict the impact of spatial management measures on marine fish populations and fishing activities. As fisheries are complex systems, fisheries simulation models are often complex, with many uncertain parameters. Here, the methodology is provided to deliver fishery diagnostics within an uncertainty context using a complex simulation tool. A sensitivity analysis of the model is performed on model outputs using partial least-squares to identify the most sensitive parameters. The impact of several management measures is then simulated using a statistical simulation design taking into account the uncertainty of the selected sensitive parameters. This approach was applied to the Bay of Biscay anchovy stock using...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Bay of Biscay anchovy; Marine protected area; Sensitivity analysis; Simulation; Uncertainty analysis.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00011/12234/9281.pdf
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