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Using climate information to approximate the value at risk of a forward contracted canola crop AgEcon
Wallace, Garry E.; Samsul Huda, A.K..
In recent decades farmers have used financial instruments such as cash forward contracts to lock-in a price for increasing proportions of their crop through different stages of the production cycle. Given the high variability of the Australian climate this practice has inherent risk with drought induced crop failure being significantly probable. Under failed crop conditions farmers buy themselves out of the contracted position at prevailing prices thereby compounding the financial burden of crop failure. This paper reports on the role of the relatively recent developments in climate prediction, based on the SOI phase system, to develop crop yield probability distributions using regression approximation and to evaluate the Value at Risk of establishing a...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Canola crop; Agricultural risk management; Farm Management.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123144
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