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Visions of Alternative (Unpredictable) Futures and Their Use in Policy Analysis Ecology and Society
Costanza, Robert; University of Maryland, Institute for Ecological Economics; rcostanz@zoo.uvm.edu.
The most critical task facing humanity today is the creation of a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable society, one that can provide permanent prosperity within the biophysical constraints of the real world in a way that is fair and equitable to all of humanity, to other species, and to future generations. Recent work with businesses and communities indicates that creating a shared vision is the most effective engine for change in the desired direction, yet most effort in "futures modeling" has focused on extrapolating past trends rather than envisioning alternative futures. Science and economics as applied to policy are in conflict more often over alternative visions of the world than purely "scientific" disagreements. Likewise, governance has...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Alternative futures; Change process; Envisioning; Public judgment; Public policy analysis; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
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