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| Registros recuperados: 15 | |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Sanders, Dwight R.; Merrin, Robert P.. |
| It is commonly asserted that speculative buying by index funds in commodity futures and over–the–counter derivatives markets created a ‘‘bubble’’ in commodity prices, with the result that prices, and crude oil prices, in particular, far exceeded fundamental values at the peak. The purpose of this paper is to show that the bubble argument simply does not withstand close scrutiny. Four main points are explored. First, the arguments of bubble proponents are conceptually flawed and reflect fundamental and basic misunderstandings of how commodity futures markets actually work. Second, a number of facts about the situation in commodity markets are inconsistent with the existence of a substantial bubble in commodity prices. Third, available statistical evidence... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Commodity; Futures; Index fund; Market; Speculation; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Marketing; Q11; Q13. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53083 |
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| Fridfinnson, Brooke; Rude, James. |
| In terms of the global situation, trade is biofuels is small relative to world-wide production; however, given ambitious consumption mandates in many developed countries as well as increasing energy consumption, this will not likely remain the case in the long-run. Although biodiesel has been classified as an industrial good, ethanol is currently marketed as an agricultural product, though not specifically for fuel use. The removal of trade barriers, particularly in the developed countries, would not only ease pressure on the traditional feedstocks and lower world ethanol prices, but allow countries with a comparative advantage to capitalize on the opportunity to produce low-cost biofuel. Whether the removal of these trade barriers on biofuels would affect... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Biofuel; Commodity; Trade; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48119 |
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| Magen, Benjamin B.; Donovan, Cynthia; Kelly, Valerie A.. |
| This working paper synthesizes the theoretical and empirical literature on the use of cash transfers in response to food crisis situations, with particular attention to their use in situations that are exacerbated by volatile, often inflationary, commodity prices. The paper is designed for policymakers who are wondering if cash transfers might be an appropriate instrument in the context of 2008’s unstable commodity prices for both food and energy, but are unfamiliar with the literature and discussions surrounding the cash vs. food debate. After defining some key terms and presenting a brief review of the theory behind cash transfer use, the paper synthesizes evidence from studies that have evaluated past cash transfer programs. While the focus is on... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Africa; Food security; Commodity; Price; Food Security and Poverty; Q11. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54557 |
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| Getu, Hailu; Weersink, Alfons. |
| Over the years, critics have argued that futures market prices have been either too low or too high. Speculators have often been the target for the wrath of those feeling the futures price does not properly reflect market fundamentals. Recently, the criticism has been vented toward a new type of speculator that has been blamed for the dramatic changes in agricultural commodity prices experienced over the last several years. Commodity index traders (CITs) and other large institutional traders are commonly accused of exerting a destabilizing influence on commodity prices. The intensity of the debate over the role of CITs appeared to wane with the reduction in commodity prices since 2008 but the recent release of a well-publicized OECD report on the issue by... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Commodity; Index futures; Trading; Volatility; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95803 |
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| Isengildina-Massa, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidence limits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fit errors expressed as a function of forecast lead time are consistent with theoretical forecast variance expressions while avoiding assumptions of normality and optimality. Based on out-of-sample accuracy tests over 1995/96–2006/07, quantile regression methods produced intervals consistent with the target confidence level. Overall, this study demonstrates that empirical approaches may be used to construct accurate confidence intervals for WASDE corn, soybean, and wheat price forecasts. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Commodity; Evaluating forecasts; Government forecasting; Judgmental forecasting; Prediction intervals; Price forecasting; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99120 |
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| Registros recuperados: 15 | |
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