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Measuring Volatility in Dairy Commodity Prices AgEcon
O'Connor, Declan; Keane, Michael; Barnes, Edel.
The policy environment facing the EU dairy industry continues to undergo considerable change under WTO and CAP reform. Movement away from supply management by the EU and a more liberal global agricultural trading system will involve greater price volatility for dairy commodities. It is anticipated that EU dairy prices will more closely align with world prices. World prices are both lower and more volatile than EU prices and it is further assumed that this increased volatility will be transmitted to EU prices. Price volatility is a concern for a number of reasons as it adds challenges for business planning, debt repayment, and, in some cases, solvency. Representative EU and world butter and SMP (Skim Milk Powder) prices are considered and using the ARMA and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Price Volatility; ARMA; GARCH; Butter; SMP; Dairy Policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58106
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Optimal Agricultural Policy with Biotechnology: Bovine Somatotropin and the Dairy Sector AgEcon
Tauer, Loren W.; Kaiser, Harry M..
A control model of the U.S. dairy sector was constructed to determine optimal policy when bovine somatotropin is released. Social welfare defined as consumer plus producer surplus minus adjustment and net government costs was maximized. Control variables were the milk support price and government purchases of cows. Compared to previous simulation research where government policy and adoption were modeled exogenously, the results show that policy not overly disruptive to the dairy sector is possible.
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Dairy Policy; Optimal Control; Bovine Somatotropin; Bovine Growth Hormone; Technology.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1990 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121536
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