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| Schultz, T. Paul. |
| The demographic transition changes the age composition of a population, affecting resource allocations at the household and aggregate level. If age profiles of income, consumption, savings and investments were stable and estimable for the entire population, they might suggest how the demographic transition would affects inputs to growth. However, existing macro and micro simulations are estimated from unrepresentative samples of wage earners that do not distinguish sex, schooling, etc. The “demographic dividend” is better evaluated through case studies of household surveys and long-run social experiments. Matlab, Bangladesh, extended a family planning and maternal and child health program to half the villages in its district in 1977, and recorded... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Fertility decline; Demographic transition; Intergenerational transfers; Gender; Consumer/Household Economics; Health Economics and Policy; International Development; Labor and Human Capital; J13; J21; J68; O15. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54534 |
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| Schultz, T. Paul. |
| Life cycle savings is proposed as one explanation for much of the increase in savings and economic growth in Asia. The association between the age composition of a nations population and its savings rate, observed within 16 Asian countries from 1952 to 1992, is reestimated here to be less than a quarter the size reported in a seminal study, which assumed lagged savings is exogenous. Specification tests as well as common sense imply, moreover, that lagged savings is likely to be endogenous, and when estimated accordingly there remains no significant dependence of savings on the age composition, measured in several ways. Research should consider lifetime savings as a substitute for children, and model the causes for the decline in fertility which changes... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Life cycle savings; Aging; Asian growth; Demographic transition; Financial Economics; D91; J11; O11; O53. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28409 |
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