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	Provedor de dados AgEcon (1) Ecology and Society (1) Autor Chaherli, Nabil M. (1) Hazell, Peter B.R. (1) Jones, Peter; CIAT (International Center for Tropical Agriculture); p.jones@cgiar.org (1) Oram, Peter A. (1) Thornton, Philip K; International Livestock Research Institute; P.Thornton@cgiar.org (1) Palavra-chave Dryland agriculture (2) Crop modeling (1) Drought management (1) Global Circulation Model (1) Global change (1) Maize (1) MarkSim (1) Markov models (1) Middle East and North Africa (1) Natural resource management (1) Resource /Energy Economics and Policy (1) Risk (1) Southern Africa (1) Spatial modeling (1) Weather simulation (1) Mais... Tipo do documento Peer-Reviewed Reports (1) Working or Discussion Paper (1) Ano 2002 (1) 2001 (1) País Canada (1) United States (1) Idioma Inglês (2)		Ordenar por:  Relevância Autor Título Ano Registros recuperados: 2 Primeira ... 1 ... Última Spatial Modeling of Risk in Natural Resource Management Ecology and Society Jones, Peter; CIAT (International Center for Tropical Agriculture); p.jones@cgiar.org; Thornton, Philip K; International Livestock Research Institute; P.Thornton@cgiar.org. Making decisions in natural resource management involves an understanding of the risk and uncertainty of the outcomes, such as crop failure or cattle starvation, and of the normal spread of the expected production. Hedging against poor outcomes often means lack of investment and slow adoption of new methods. At the household level, production instability can have serious effects on income and food security. At the national level, it can have social and economic impacts that may affect all sectors of society. Crop models such as CERES-Maize are excellent tools for assessing weather-related production variability. WATBAL is a water balance model that can provide robust estimates of the potential growing days for a pasture. These models require large... Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Crop modeling; Dryland agriculture; Global change; Global Circulation Model; Maize; Markov models; MarkSim; Natural resource management; Risk; Southern Africa; Spatial modeling; Weather simulation. Ano: 2002 MANAGING DROUGHTS IN THE LOW-RAINFALL AREAS OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA AgEcon Hazell, Peter B.R.; Oram, Peter A.; Chaherli, Nabil M.. Drought is a recurrent and often devastating threat to the welfare of countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) where three-quarters of the arable land has less than 400 mm of annual rainfall, and the natural grazings, which support a majority of the 290 million ruminant livestock, have less than 200 mm. Its impact has been exacerbated in the last half century by the human population increasing yearly at over 3%, while livestock numbers have risen by 50% over the quinquennium. Virtually no scope exists for further expansion of rainfed farming and very little for irrigation, hence there is competition between mechanized cereal production and grazing in the low rainfall areas, and traditional nomadic systems of drought management through mobility... Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Drought management; Dryland agriculture; Middle East and North Africa; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16069 Registros recuperados: 2 Primeira ... 1 ... Última

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