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Impact of Revised CO2 Growth Projections for China on Global Stabilization Goals AgEcon
Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Richels, Richard G.; Rutherford, Thomas F..
Recent growth in carbon dioxide emissions from China’s energy sector has exceeded expectations. In a major US government study of future emissions released in 2007 (1), participating models appear to have substantially underestimated the near-term rate of increase in China’s emissions. We present a recalibration of one of those models to be consistent with both current observations and historical development patterns. The implications of the new specification for the feasibility of commonly discussed stabilization targets, particularly when considering incomplete global participation, are profound. Unless China’s emissions begin to depart soon from their (newly projected) business-as-usual path, stringent stabilization goals may be unattainable. The...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy-Economy Modeling; China; Economic Growth Rates; Energy Intensity; International Climate Policy; Q48; H23; O13.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42921
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