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Using climate change models to assess the probability of weather extremes events: a local scale study based on the generalized extreme value distribution Bragantia
Fontolan,Mariana; Xavier,Ana Carolina Freitas; Pereira,Heloisa Ramos; Blain,Gabriel Constantino.
ABSTRACT Regional climate models (e.g. Eta) nested to global climate models (e.g. HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5) have been used to assess potential impacts of climate change at regional scales. This study used the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) to evaluate the ability of two nested models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) to assess the probability of daily extremes of air temperature and precipitation in the location of Campinas, state of São Paulo, Brazil. Within a control run (1961-2005), correction factors based on the GEV parameters have been proposed to approach the distributions generated from the models to those built from the weather station of Campinas. Both models were also used to estimate the probability of daily extremes of air temperature...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Climate change; Local impacts; Eta model; Nested models.
Ano: 2019 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052019000100146
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Hydrological responses to climate changes in a headwater watershed Ciência e Agrotecnologia
Alvarenga,Lívia Alves; Mello,Carlos Rogério de; Colombo,Alberto; Cuartas,Luz Adriana; Chou,Sin Chan.
ABSTRACT Climate change impacts need to be considered in water resource planning. This work aims to study of the impacts climate change on Lavrinha headwater watershed, located in the Mantiqueira Range, southeastern Brazil. The impacts from climate change (RCP 8.5 scenario) in the Lavrinha watershed runoff were analyzed based on the "Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model" (DHSVM), forced with the climate simulated for this future climate change scenario. These simulations, in turn, were generated by the Eta regional climate model coupled to Global Climate Model (GCM) HadGEM2-ES for the 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 periods. The results of this study showed that the runoff is very sensitive to rising temperatures and reduced precipitation, both...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Downscaling; Eta model; DHSVM; Hydrological impacts.
Ano: 2016 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1413-70542016000600647
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