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The Fertility Transition in Bavaria 31
Brown, John C.; Guinnane, Timothy W..
The decline of human fertility that occurred in Europe and North America in the nineteenth century, and elsewhere in the twentieth century, remains a topic of debate largely because there is no accepted explanation for the event. Disagreement persists in part because researchers have rarely used the detailed quantitative information necessary to form adequate tests of alternative theories. This paper uses district-level data from Bavaria to study the correlates of the decline of fertility in that German kingdom in the nineteenth century. Bavaria’s fertility transition was later and less dramatic than in other parts of Germany. The European Fertility Project, the most influential study of the European fertility transition, used very large units of analysis...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Fertility transition; Migration; Germany; Labor and Human Capital; N3; J1.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28508
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Two Statistical Problems in the Princeton Project on the European Fertility Transition 31
Brown, John C.; Guinnane, Timothy W..
The Princeton Project on the Decline of Fertility in Europe (or European Fertility Project, hereafter EFP) was carried out at Princeton University's Office of Population Research in the 1960s and 1970s. This project aimed to characterize the decline of fertility that took place in Europe during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The project's summary statements argued that social and economic forces played little role in bringing about the fertility transition. The statement stresses instead a process of innovation and diffusion. A central feature of the EFP argument is a series of statistical exercises that purport to show that changes in economic and social conditions exerted little influence on fertility. Two recent papers on Germany for...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Fertility transition; Labor and Human Capital; J13; N33; O15.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28392
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The Fertility Transition: Economic Explanations 31
Schultz, T. Paul.
Economic explanations for the fertility transition focus on the role of returns to schooling, especially for women, which have encouraged women to obtain more education and facilitated the rise in women’s wages relative to men’s. The private opportunity costs of children have therefore increased, and parents have been motivated to substitute child schooling for additional births Declines in fertility have proceeded unevenly, first across the high income countries, and more recently across the low income countries. The cross sectional differentials in fertility are also frequently analyzed in household surveys, suggesting parallels with the cross-country comparisons. At an aggregate level, states have simultaneously legislated socialized support for the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Fertility transition; Women’s schooling; Women’s wages; Child mortality; Labor and Human Capital; D19; J10; J13; N30.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28471
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Social Class and the Fertility Transition: A Critical Comment on the Statistical Results Reported in Simon Szreter's Fertility, Class and Gender in Britain, 1860-1940 31
Barnes, Geoffrey; Guinnane, Timothy W..
Simon Szreter’s book Fertility, Class, and Gender in Britain, 1860-1940 argues that social and economic class fails to explain the cross-sectional differences in marital fertility as reported in the 1911 census of England and Wales. Szreter’s conclusion made the book immediately influential, and it remains so. This finding matters a great deal for debates about the causes of the European fertility decline of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. For decades scholars have argued whether the main forces at work were ideational or social and economic. This note reports a simple re-analysis of Szreter’s own data, which suggests that social class does explain cross-sectional differences in English marital fertility in 1911.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Fertility transition; 1911 Census of England and Wales; Consumer/Household Economics; Labor and Human Capital; J13; N33.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97338
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The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists 31
Guinnane, Timothy W..
The historical fertility transition is the process by which much of Europe and North America went from high to low fertility in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This transformation is central to recent accounts of long-run economic growth. Prior to the transition, women bore as many as eight children each, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes was positive. Today, many women have no children at all, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes is zero or even negative. This paper discusses the large literature on the historical fertility transition, focusing on what we do and do not know about the process. I stress some possible misunderstandings of the demographic literature, and discuss an agenda for future work.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Fertility transition; Long-run growth; Malthusian models; Quantity-quality trade-off; Consumer/Household Economics; International Development; Labor and Human Capital; N3; O1; O4.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95271
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