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| Manfredo, Mark R.; Sanders, Dwight R.. |
| USDA and Cooperative Extension Service forecasts of hog prices are directly tested for incremental value vis-à-vis futures-based forecasts in a forecast encompassing framework. At horizons less than six months, the lean hog futures-based forecast is found to be more accurate than both the USDA and Extension Service forecasts, and the difference in forecasting performance is statistically significant. Not only are the agency forecasts less accurate, but neither the USDA nor the Extension Service forecasts add incremental information relative to the futures forecast. The results suggest that extension forecasters may want to refocus forecasting efforts on basis relationships, longer forecast horizons, or commodities without active futures markets. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Forecast encompassing; Hog prices; Public forecasts; Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59395 |
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| Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.. |
| Conditional efficiency or forecast encompassing is tested among alternative pork production forecasts using the method proposed by Harvey and Newbold. One-, two-, and three-quarter ahead pork production forecasts made by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the University of Illinois and Purdue University Cooperative Extension Service, and those produced by a univariate time series model are evaluated. The encompassing tests provide considerably more information about forecast performance than a simple pair-wise test for equality of mean squared errors. The results suggest that at a one-quarter horizon, the Extension service forecasts encompass the competitors, but at longer horizon, a composite forecast may provide greater accuracy. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Composite forecasts; Forecast encompassing; Pork production; C53; Q13. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43451 |
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