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| Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Dean, Erik; Parcell, Joseph L.. |
| Agricultural producers and input suppliers must regularly make decisions based on forecasts; however, most publicly available forecasts are for outputs. Research has shown the importance of being a low-cost operator. Thus, focusing on inputs may be beneficial. The objective of this research was to estimate models based on futures markets to forecast diesel fuel prices. Results suggest diesel fuel prices forecasted using the crude oil or heating oil futures market are reasonably accurate, and that this approach is superior to using a historical average. Based on out-of-sample price predictions, producers could profitably use crude oil futures-based models to make diesel fuel purchasing decisions. While the gains from following a model-based decision rule... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Crude oil; Diesel fuel; Forecasts; Forward contracting; Heating oil; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14664 |
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| Velandia, Margarita M.; Rejesus, Roderick M.; Knight, Thomas O.; Sherrick, Bruce J.. |
| Factors affecting the adoption of crop insurance, forward contracting, and spreading sales are analyzed using multivariate and multinomial probit approaches that account for simultaneous adoption and/or correlation among the three risk management adoption decisions. Our empirical results suggest that the decision to adopt crop insurance, forward contracting, and/or spreading sales are correlated. Richer insights can be drawn from our multivariate and multinomial probit analysis than from separate, single-equation probit estimation that assumes independence of adoption decisions. Some factors significantly affecting the adoption of the risk management tools analyzed are proportion of owned acres, off-farm income, education, age, and level of business risks. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Adoption decisions; Crop insurance; Forward contracting; Multinomial probit; Multivariate probit; Risk management; Spreading sales; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; G22; Q12; Q18. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48751 |
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| Perry, Janet E.; Mishra, Ashok K.. |
| Forward contracting of inputs in production agriculture is becoming increasingly important as more farmers attempt to manage risk. Using a logit model and farm-level data, this analysis estimates the effect of factors on the probability of a producer using forward input contracting. Results suggest that use of contracting in selling of crops and livestock, technology, farm size, geographic location, participation in government commodity programs, and use of extension services are important factors affecting the choice to forward contract inputs. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Forward contracting; Inputs; Risk; Marketing. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14729 |
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