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Actuarial Implication of Structural Changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index Dynamics AgEcon
Chen, Shu-Ling.
The influence of climate variability on agricultural production and financial risks faced by an individual or an institution has been the center of the public discussion in the recent years. The changing weather patterns and environmental conditions could cause substantial unpredicted economic loss. Failure to capture the changing climate would underestimate the insurance contract’s expected indemnity and further create a major obstacle for insurance sectors. In this paper, we undertake a case study of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index insurance for coastal Peru proposed by Skees. We examined the behavior of El Niño dynamics and found El Niño indices are changing over time. A class of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Actuarial rating; Climate variability; El Niño; Fractional integration ARCH; FIGARCH; Index insurance; Structural change; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; G21; G22; Q10; Q14.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61384
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