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| Enfors, Elin I; Natural Resources Management, Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, Sweden; elin@ecology.su.se; Gordon, Line J; Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, Sweden; Natural Resources Management, Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, Sweden; line@stockholmresilience.su.se; Peterson, Garry D; Department of Geography and McGill School of Environment, McGill University, Canada; Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, Sweden; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca; Bossio, Deborah; International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Sri Lanka; d.bossio@iwmi.cgiar.org. |
| The agro-ecosystems of semi-arid and dry sub-humid SSA are inherently dynamic. At this point in time they are also experiencing a series of complex social–ecological changes that make their future even more uncertain. To ensure that development investments made today in the small-scale farming systems that dominate these regions make sense also in a long-term perspective they should benefit the local communities over a range of potential futures. We applied a participatory scenario planning approach to a smallholder farming community in semi-arid Tanzania, exploring four alternative development trajectories for the area, to increase the robustness of current investments in small-scale water system technologies. We found that water system... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Dryland regions; Future; Investments; Participatory scenario planning; Small-scale farming; Sub-Saharan Africa; Uncertainty; Water system technologies. |
| Ano: 2008 |
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| Malinga, Rebecka; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; rebecka.malinga@stockholmresilience.su.se; Gordon, Line J.; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; line.gordon@stockholmresilience.su.se; Lindborg, Regina; Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University; regina.lindborg@natgeo.su.se; Jewitt, Graham; Centre for Water Resources Research, Umgeni Water Chair of Water Resources Management, University of KwaZulu-Natal ; jewittg@ukzn.ac.za. |
| There is a growing interest in assessing ecosystem services to improve ecosystem management in landscapes containing a mix of different ecosystems. While methodologies for assessing ecosystem services are constantly improving, only little attention has been given to the identification of which ecosystem services to assess. Service selection is mostly based on current state of the landscape although many landscapes are both inherently complex and rapidly changing. In this study we examine whether scenario development, a tool for dealing with uncertainties and complexities of the future, gives important insights into the selection of ecosystem services in changing landscapes. Using an agricultural landscape in South Africa we compared different sets of... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Complexity; Ecosystem services; Future; Landscape; Scenarios; Social-ecological systems; South Africa; Uncertainties. |
| Ano: 2013 |
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| Yool, A.; Popova, E. E.; Coward, A. C.. |
| One of the most characteristic features in ocean productivity is the North Atlantic spring bloom. Responding to seasonal increases in irradiance and stratification, surface phytopopulations rise significantly, a pattern that visibly tracks poleward into summer. While blooms also occur in the Arctic Ocean, they are constrained by the sea-ice and strong vertical stratification that characterize this region. However, Arctic sea-ice is currently declining, and forecasts suggest this may lead to completely ice-free summers by the mid-21st century. Such change may open the Arctic up to Atlantic-style spring blooms, and do so at the same time as Atlantic productivity is threatened by climate change-driven ocean stratification. Here we use low and high-resolution... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Marine; Ocean; Biogeochemistry; Arctic; Atlantic; Future. |
| Ano: 2015 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43972.pdf |
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| Banse, Martin; Helming, John F.M.; Nowicki, Peter; van Meijl, Hans. |
| This paper identifies major future trends and driving factors and perspectives and challenges resulting from them for European agriculture and food sectors until the year 2020. The focus of the paper is an analysis of key driving forces and the provision of a well developed reference scenario under the assumption of continued CAP reform and taking into account the framework discussions in the Doha Development Round. To assess the impact of policies the paper also examines a liberalisation (no support) and regionalization (maximum support) scenario. In terms of policy options the paper shows that the structural change process in agriculture (measured in terms of agricultural share in GDP) is a long-term process that continues with or without policy changes.... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Economic modelling; Future; CAP policy options; Structural change; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97588 |
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