| The paper reports results of non-parametric analysis of peanut, corn, and cotton yield distributions by the ElNino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases in the Southeastern U.S. For validation purposes, the historical yield data is complemented by a set of simulated peanut yields generated using daily weather data. The hypothesis, justified by the observed South-Eastern climate differences and research on ENSO cycles and planting dates, is that different climate conditions during ENSO cycles translate into different yield distributions and, therefore, insurance premiums (loss to coverage ratios). Kernel density estimates of historical county yield data show consistent patterns in the actuarially fair rate schedules grouped by ENSO phases and geographical... |
